NFL profitable sweetheart teasers strategy explained

January 18, 2023

Recently, We published a comprehensive article on teaser strategies explaining what teasers are, who has the best odds, how to analyze teasers at an advanced level, potentially Profitable blind teasers, industry secrets, and more. If you still need to read that article, we strongly recommend you do so before continuing.

Now, moving forward, a topic we have yet to discuss in detail is the special trailer. These are called “sweetheart teasers” and “monster teasers” on sportsbook sites. The names are not standard, but the concept is the same. If you’re unfamiliar with these, a typical example is a 10-point three-team NFL teaser, usually available for -110 to -130.

As another example, you are interested in betting on three teams this week: Jets +1.5, Ravens -11.5, and Patriots -2.5. Instead of betting directly at -110 or -105 or placing them in standard parlays or Standard teasers, you can put them in what many sites call Special, monster, or sweetheart teasers odds. If you do, you’ll get a single bet: Jets +11, Ravens -1.5, Patriots +7.5; each spread moves 10 points. Likewise, you risk $11 to $13 for every $10 in winnings, depending on whether the Bookmaker offers -110, -120, or -130.

It is just one example of a sweetheart teaser. Some sites also offer a 13-point spread for four teams, while others offer 2-15 Teams with a 1/2-point spread betting between 5.5 and 17, with a 20-point spread option. While the turnaround options vary from site to site, many local bookies and most online bookies offer a 3-team 10-point Option. For this reason, We will use this as an example of calculating the value of a sweet teaser.


Lose of Ties Often

The first thing you must know about sweetheart teaser is that Ties lose. It isn’t the case with all sites, but it is with many of them, so pay close attention to the rules.

Sportsbooks offer poor odds for this bet type. These guys are otherwise great, but we’ll leave them out for a trailer of this type. Bookmakers also Offer worse odds but have their advantages. At Bookmaker, these joke bets can be up to $20,000, compared to the $500 maximum on most other sites. The Bookmaker also reduces ties, meaning Bets are refunded if one or more sides push and all others win.


Are sweetheart teasers sucker bets?

We’ve heard for years that sweetheart teasers are dumb bets, but we honestly hadn’t researched them closely before writing this article. So let’s go ahead and take a look together:

We now know, or at least should know, that at -110, you need to win 52.38% of your bets to break even over the long run, given that this is the most common charging price in sports betting. When there are three bets in the -110 bet, we need to convert 52.38% to a decimal .5238 and then find which number multiplied by itself three times equals .5238, or in math terms: what is .5238 the cube root of. Using a cube root calculator, We quickly determined that .8061 x .8061 x .8061 = .5238. So for a leg in a three-team pass at -110 to have a neutral expected value, it must win 80.61% of the time.

After doing this math, We’re already discouraged. Rarely do we get the extra 30.61% chance of winning by adding 10 points, especially when the push counts as a loss? However, We decided to make an educated guess as to which subset of spreads in the 10-point teaser would be most valuable. Now, we know that in the NFL, the most common winning order is: 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13, and 2. So we want to develop subsets of intersections with as many of these key figures as possible. The six I’ve decided are most likely to have value, if any subset, are -10.5 to -12.5 favorites, -1.5 to -2.5 favorites, -4.5 to -6.5 favorites, +4.5 Weak to +5.5, Weak to +7.5 to +9.5 and Weak to +11.5 to +12.5.

Our next step is to look at a lot of historical data to determine how often teams push each number crossed in 10-point teases and then add them together to get a rough idea of whether teasing that subset with 10-point teases is valuable. After doing this, we eliminated the -1.5 to -2.5 and +7.5 to +9.5 subsets; Teasing the ten points increased their win rate by about 17%. The other four subsets were close enough to warrant a more detailed analysis.

As professional gamblers, We’ve been compiling NFL stats into a database for years for analysis when needed. While this sounds complicated, calculating trailers, push probabilities, etc., is relatively easy. While we can’t confirm their accuracy, many recommend NFL data. Going to our database, We were able to find historical results for the following 10-point trailers:


-10.5 to -12.5 teased of 10 points

Since 2006: 53-15 (77.94%)

Since 2001: 97-30 (76.37%)

-4.5 to -6.5 teased of 10 points: (32.7% at -6.5) to (31.6% at -4.5)

Since 2006: 210-61 (77.49%)

Since 2001: 391-108 (78.36%)

+4.5 to +5.5 teased 10 points:

Since 2006: 96-24 (80.00%)

Since 2001: 213-58 (78.60%)

+11.5 to +12.5 teased of 10 points:

Since 2006: 24-8 (75%)

Since 2001: 41-11 (78.85)


We’ve searched into these and are 98% sure that the standard three-team 10-point trailer has no value.

A thoughtful sports bettor who usually makes the most money is someone with lots of ideas, curiosities, theories, and hunches. Instead of taking a bet to see if they win, they take out a blank sheet of paper, a few spreadsheets, etc., and test it out. Bookmakers are Smart, so we are often disappointed that our brilliant idea is not +EV.

The good news is that as we practice our skills and grow our knowledge, we can find that +EV bets are faster in time. As far as trailers go, out-of-the-box +EV trailers pop up every week.

Some sites offer 2-15 point team passes in each half between 5 and 17, and 20 point passes, each with two different draw forms. While it will take some time initially to do the work, and it can be a ‘tough way to make an easy living,’ becoming a football forecasting expert and then managing your bankroll will allow you to make easy money over time.

If you’re a casual bettor just looking for blinds, stick to the strategy we mentioned in our teaser strategy guide. In the same article, more advanced techniques can be found by those who aspire to or currently gamble professionally.

Remember that teasers usually have winning streaks; don’t get overconfident or carried away by your bankroll.

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