Six Tips To Find MMA Underdogs Worth Betting On

BY markoh August 15, 2023

Betting on underdog fighters in MMA can be rewarding, provided you approach it with diligence and insight. While favorites tend to secure victories more frequently, their moneyline odds often overestimate their likelihood of winning. This article delves into a detailed exploration of six crucial tips that can aid you in identifying and capitalizing on valuable underdog opportunities in MMA betting.

The Value of the Golden Underdog is Real! 

Statistically, MMA underdogs triumph roughly 35% of the time. In fact, during 2014, a strategy of exclusively betting on underdogs would have outperformed wagering solely on favorites.

While we can’t possess a copy of Gray’s Sports Almanac akin to Biff’s advantage in Back to the Future II, we rely on more conventional means to identify promising longshots. Rather than a time-traveling DeLorean, the true treasures in discovering top underdogs are hidden within analytics.

Tip 1. Take a Closer Look at a Fighter’s Career

Scrutinizing a fighter’s entire career history goes beyond merely glancing at their overall record. Analyzing how a fighter wins or loses their matches, as well as their career trajectory, provides more profound insights. Consider factors such as consecutive wins, the average duration of victorious fights, fight frequency, and the nature of recent losses. Sherdog is an invaluable resource for examining fighters’ professional histories, as it offers information about how they secured victories or faced defeats. 

This analysis lets you grasp a fighter’s versatility and adaptability, crucial in assessing their potential performance against different opponents.

Tip 2. Know the In-Fight Data

Delving into in-fight statistics can illuminate a fighter’s tactics and tendencies. Websites like Fight Metric presents advanced statistics such as significant strikes landed, takedown attempts, and their success rates. These metrics provide an in-depth understanding of a fighter’s offensive and defensive capabilities. 

Analyzing individual fights also reveals trends and patterns that can be pivotal in predicting their performance. Paying attention to details like takedown attempts and their success rate can help you gauge how well an underdog’s style might align with their opponent’s weaknesses.

Tip 3. Consider Fighter Age

Recognizing the impact of a fighter’s age on their performance is vital. Studies indicate that warriors typically peak in their late twenties to early thirties. As fighters age, attributes such as speed, power, agility, and the ability to absorb punches tend to decline. The data reveals that fighters between 36 to 38 years old are at a higher risk of knockouts due to accumulated damage and decreased brain resiliency. 

This understanding helps you avoid overestimating older fighters’ capabilities, which can lead to more accurate underdog assessments.

Tip 4. Recognize Fighter Stance

Fighter stance, whether orthodox (right-handed) or southpaw (left-handed), plays a role in fight outcomes. Southpaw fighters have shown a higher success rate, while those who can fluidly switch stances have an even better win rate. Flexibility in stance and adaptability to different situations favor underdogs, particularly in closely contested fights. 

Recognizing the significance of fighter stances empowers you to identify potential advantages underdogs might possess over their opponents.

Tip 5. Understand Odds Accuracy

Bookmakers set odds after thorough research and analysis, considering past performances, injuries, and fighters’ layoff times. While searching for value in underdogs is worthwhile, remember that odds reflect a fighter’s true chances of winning based on available information. It’s essential to be selective in your bets and avoid making hasty decisions solely driven by potential high payouts. 

Balancing your assessment of an underdog’s value with a realistic evaluation of their chances is essential for successful betting.

Tip 6. Consider Mental Warfare

The psychological aspect of a fight, often fueled by pre-fight press conferences and interviews, can significantly impact outcomes. Fighters engaging in mental warfare through trash talk and psychological tactics aim to destabilize their opponents. Identifying fighters who remain composed under such pressure and stick to their game plans can be a key indicator of their potential success. 

Examining a fighter’s history in high-pressure scenarios can offer insights into their mental fortitude, providing a valuable dimension to your underdog assessment.

Successful MMA underdog betting results from meticulous research, data analysis, and an understanding of the psychological dynamics of the sport. By evaluating a fighter’s career comprehensively, studying in-fight statistics, considering age-related factors, recognizing fighter stances, understanding odds accuracy, and acknowledging the role of mental warfare, you can unveil valuable underdog opportunities with greater precision. 

Remember that effective MMA underdog betting requires a combination of strategic insight, discipline, and a thorough approach to maximize your chances of making profitable bets.

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