Wie Sie mit dem Kelly-Kriterium Ihre Bankroll steigern können

November 30, 2023

In der sich ständig weiterentwickelnden Welt der Sportwetten liegt der Schlüssel zum Erfolg darin, die Strategien zu verstehen, die Ihnen einen Vorteil gegenüber Buchmachern verschaffen können. Zu diesen Strategien gehört das Kelly-Kriterium, eine Formel, die scharfsinnige Sportwetter nutzen, um Value-Wetten zu identifizieren und ihr Guthaben effektiv zu verwalten.

In diesem Artikel wird das Kelly-Kriterium besprochen, seine Funktionsweise erklärt und die Bedeutung des Bankroll-Managements bei Sportwetten hervorgehoben.

Bankroll-Management

Die Grundlage des Erfolgs Bevor wir uns mit dem Kelly-Kriterium befassen, ist es wichtig, die Bedeutung des Bankroll-Managements zu verstehen. Bei diesem Ansatz müssen Sie einen bestimmten Geldbetrag für Wetten beiseite legen, den Überblick über Ihre Wetten behalten und Einheitswetten anstelle von Dollarbeträgen verwenden. Indem Sie Ihr Guthaben in Einheiten aufteilen, z. B. jeweils 5 $, können Sie basierend auf der Größe Ihres Guthabens besser abschätzen, wie viel Sie bei jeder Wette setzen müssen.

Das Kelly-Kriterium

Das Kelly-Kriterium ist eine von John Kelly Jr. in den 1950er Jahren entwickelte Formel zur Kantenerkennung und hat sich bei erfolgreichen Wettenden zu einem beliebten Hilfsmittel entwickelt. In Kombination mit Sportanalyse- und Modellierungstools hilft diese Formel bei der Identifizierung von Value-Wetten auf dem Quotenboard und unterstützt Sie bei der Bestimmung der geeigneten Wetthöhe.

Die Kelly-Kriteriumsformel verstehen

Die Kelly-Kriterium-Formel kann wie folgt ausgedrückt werden:

  • f* = (P * B – Q) / B

Wo:

  • f* = Bruchteil des Einsatzguthabens
  • P = Gewinnwahrscheinlichkeit
  • Q = Wahrscheinlichkeit zu verlieren (1 – P)
  • B = Dezimalquote – 1 (wenn in Moneyline-Quoten ausgedrückt, B = (Dezimalquote/100) – 1)

Anwendung des Kelly-Kriteriums

Lassen Sie uns die Formel anhand eines einfachen Beispiels veranschaulichen. Angenommen, Sie können auf einen Münzwurf mit einer Dezimalquote von 2,00 (oder +100 bei der Geldlinienquote) wetten. Basierend auf Ihrer Analyse schätzen Sie die Wahrscheinlichkeit, dass die Münze „Kopf“ landet, auf 55 %.

  • P = 0.55 
  • Q = 1 – 0.55 = 0.45 
  • B = 2 – 1 = 1

Verwendung der Kelly-Kriterium-Formel

  • f* = (0.55 * 1 – 0.45) / 1 ≈ 0.10

Dieses Ergebnis zeigt an, dass Sie 10 % Ihres Guthabens (10 Einheiten) auf diesen Münzwurf setzen sollten.

Fallstricke und Einschränkungen

Obwohl das Kelly-Kriterium ein wertvolles Instrument ist, hat es seine Grenzen. In manchen Fällen kann die Formel empfehlen, übermäßige Einheiten auf bestimmte Wetten zu setzen, was riskant sein kann. Die Wirksamkeit der Formel hängt auch davon ab, dass im Quotenboard Value-Wetten gefunden werden. Die Verwendung des Kelly-Kriteriums als Teil einer umfassenden Bankroll-Management-Strategie und nicht als eigenständige Methode für den Wetterfolg ist von entscheidender Bedeutung.

Das Kelly-Kriterium ist ein leistungsstarkes Formeltool für Sportwetter, um Value-Wetten zu identifizieren und ihr Guthaben effektiv zu verwalten. Indem Sie diese Formel in Ihre Wettstrategie integrieren und die Grundsätze eines soliden Bankroll-Managements befolgen, können Sie Ihre Gewinn- und Erfolgschancen bei Sportwetten verbessern. Es ist jedoch wichtig zu bedenken, dass Sportwetten kein Plan sind, um schnell reich zu werden, und dass umsichtige Entscheidungen, Recherche und Disziplin für ein profitables Wetterlebnis von entscheidender Bedeutung sind.

One thought on “Wie Sie mit dem Kelly-Kriterium Ihre Bankroll steigern können”

  • When you could have a narrower grip, the trapezius muscles work more.
    The latter being a lot harder.You can count on to carry a lower weight on this exercise compared to the presses.
    Entrance raises isolate the anterior deltoids, helping to construct the entrance of your shoulders.

    However, new analysis means that training a muscle group multiple instances per
    week has a larger influence on muscle growth
    (1). Bicep curls are a classic isolation train that targets the biceps brachii,
    the primary muscle on the front of the upper arm.
    No, sadly, there is not an exercise that equally targets all three heads of the deltoid muscle.

    You must do a minimum of three completely different workout routines to emphasise each
    head. Almost all of us carry weights to get stronger or enhance our body’s appearance.
    Broad, rounded shoulders are very important for making a balanced, aesthetic physique, especially of the higher body.

    Strong shoulders assist enhance the shoulder joint’s flexibility, which permits a
    larger range of motion for the arms.
    Dumbbells permit for a larger range of movement in lure exercises compared to barbells or machines.

    This extended movement vary enables extra comprehensive muscle fiber activation, extra activation means extra potential for elevated growth.
    Dumbbells also allow for natural motion patterns, accommodating individual joint mechanics and reducing the chance of injury.

    The pike push-up is certainly one of only a few body weight entrance
    delt workouts. It is a difficult variation of the traditional push-up that primarily targets
    the shoulder muscles, notably the entrance deltoid.

    It additionally engages the higher chest and triceps however
    to a lesser extent. If your entrance delts are already well-developed as compared, which
    may imply moderating the quantity and intensity
    of any direct entrance delt work.
    The aspect delts are liable for shoulder abduction, which is the arm raised to the physique’s aspect [1].
    This muscle creates a broader look of the higher body and is the principle focus for broad shoulders.
    The half-kneeling landmine press combines horizontal and vertical actions to ensure you make your shoulders stronger.

    On top of that, if you’ve experienced any shoulder injury just lately,
    this train can be used as a modified overhead press.
    If you can’t lift your arms as you’re leaving the fitness
    center, that’s a great thing. Multiply that by all of the different varieties of lifting equipment out there today (barbells,
    dumbbells, cables and so on) and the possibilities for shoulder
    workouts are infinite. Yet, somehow, there are nonetheless tons of
    fellows whose delts are unbalanced, whether or not it’s the front delts overpowering the rear delts
    or the middle delts getting all the eye. Of all the deltoids, that is the pinnacle more than likely
    to be overdeveloped. Performing as a synergist
    or helper muscle, the anterior deltoids work whenever you do overhead presses,
    entrance raises, bench presses, push-ups,
    flyes, or dips.
    Pull the band aside with your right hand, as if pulling a bow, squeezing your again and shoulder muscular tissues and bending your elbow as you do that.
    When it involves training frequency, there are numerous variables to take
    into account. For instance, your age, your recovery
    routine, food plan, and the depth of your session all impacts how your body will react, recover and rebuild.

    At the top of the motion rotate your hand downward simply barely so that your pinkie is larger
    than your thumb. One additional factor I like to do with
    this train is to vary the angle of the bench with
    every set. So, if the first set the bench was at seventy five degrees, I may drop it by about 5 degrees or so
    on the subsequent two sets. When we are training explosively
    it’s not the time to try to isolate particular person muscles.
    You need to make sure you’re together with something that permits
    all the shoulder girdle muscles of the higher physique to work together.
    We can do this with a combo of a Cheat Lateral, going into
    a Dumbbell Push Press which is a great combination to include in any dumbbell shoulder workout.

    Stand up explosively and use this momentum that can assist you pull the bar up the front of your body to
    mid-chest peak. To do it, hold a barbell with an overhand,
    slightly wider than shoulder-width grip in entrance of your thighs.
    Maintain a barbell with an overhand, slightly wider than shoulder-width grip in entrance of your thighs.

    The Bradford press combines regular with behind-the-neck barbell presses.
    Prolong your legs powerfully and use this momentum that
    can assist you push the weight up and overhead.
    When you practice with deltoid-specific exercises, you’ll see serious benefits from your newfound energy features.
    Before we discover the optimal workout routines for the deltoids, I need to
    ensure you perceive the anatomy of the deltoid muscle.

    This exercise engages your posterior, anterior, and
    medial deltoids, and even your triceps and traps.

    Primarily Based on that, you have to be doing about 8-12
    total units per week for aspect and rear delts and 6-8 sets for the front delts.
    Any urgent or pulling motion you do with your higher body entails your shoulders.
    The seated bent-over reverse fly is another variation to focus on the rear delts alongside the mid and higher traps.
    Safe to say, the typical lifting fanatic most likely
    doesn’t have to perform front raises.
    These muscles connect to the humerus, offering
    help for the glenohumeral joint (ball and socket joint of the shoulder).
    The upright row has a nasty name, previously canceled by
    the fitness world for fear of shoulder impingement.
    Whereas that’s a special debate, the upright row has made a comeback
    and is superb for attacking the medial delts. When lateral raising, one huge
    mistake is focusing on the palms above the elbows. You can also do these with cables to hit the facet delts from a unique angle.

    Utilizing dumbbells, we are in a position to simply
    isolate each muscle head to construct big shoulders.

    For some exercises you are able to do more reps.
    The forward-leaning push-ups are an instance.
    There have been quite a few research on accomplished creatine on efficient it is
    improving bodily efficiency as nicely as gains in fat/bone-free mass.
    Broad grip chin ups are virtually second to none in terms of increasing
    shoulder girdle girth and creating as much space
    as possible between shoulder ends. Made for the elite athlete and the strong-willed our products
    have been designed to fuel your athletic performance. Rotate out of
    your shoulder and the center of your back, not
    your decrease back.
    Traps are divided into three sections — higher, middle, and lower — and you must target them from completely different angles to construct a thick, dense
    again. The excellent news is that you can get a whole trapezius exercise with nothing but a pair of dumbbells.
    As an in-home private trainer, I work with several clients who solely have entry to dumbbells.

    The shoulder is a really mobile joint that’s capable of a wide range of actions.

    As such, the shoulder joint can additionally be very injury-prone, a
    reality to which many lifters can attest. It is a
    shoulder train, but it also recruits the trapezius
    muscular tissues.
    If for some purpose that is too easy for you, throw a weighted vest on and you’ve just made this a lot harder.
    For the shoulders, the Barbell Overhead Press is our best exercise for overload.
    We’re going to warm up the shoulder with an activation train, the Overhead Band Press.
    We typically overlook the truth that the shoulder joint is rather more than just a ball and socket
    joint. Moreover, for the rationale that socket is actually the shoulder
    blade, there are numerous extra muscles that are affected by
    shoulder movement. This not solely includes the entire muscle tissue that
    connect to the humerus, however the muscular tissues that attach to the scapula as well.

    Whereas this exercise won’t do much for the size of your
    shoulders, it could assist improve shoulder joint
    well being. Most chest and lots of shoulder workout routines involve medial or inward rotation. This could cause imbalances inside the rotator
    cuff, which is a group of small muscles that stabilize and management the finer actions of the shoulder joint.

    I usually do reps of single-arm raises on both sides to coach my lateral delts successfully.
    The dumbbell upright row can be used to focus on your shoulders or traps,
    depending on how broad or slim you retain your elbows through the movement.
    One of the most effective methods to put on some severe shoulder mass
    and get full, dense shoulders is by doing dumbbell shoulder exercises.

    Beginners and advanced lifters use dumbbells to construct a powerful foundation of power.

    The half-kneeling archer row challenges you to build rotator cuff power and likewise build the stabilizing mid-back
    muscle you want to keep your shoulders healthy. Shrugs
    may be one of the poorly-performed exercises within the gym.
    Walk into any given weight room, and you’re liable to see some poor misguided muscle hawk
    rolling his shoulders over and over within the mirror.
    After the lateral raise, the entrance elevate ought to be
    a easy concept. By shifting your position, you’ll
    shift the major focus to your entrance delts as an alternative.

    It prompts all main shoulder areas, excelling for higher
    physique stability and conditioning. The great thing about the Band Pull-Apart lies in its direct concentrating on of the rear deltoids through horizontal abduction. As you
    pull the band apart, the rear deltoids are activated to
    regulate and execute the motion. This train ensures that these often-overlooked muscular tissues receive the eye they want for
    balanced shoulder development. The cable twisting overhead press is one other efficient single-arm cable shoulder exercise.
    It is a really effective shoulder press variation that works the anterior delt.

    However there are some things you are able to do to make every
    train simpler. Prepare to maximize your features with our
    unique 12-week hypertrophy coaching program.
    Choose between a four or 5 day training split and gain 2-12 pounds of
    muscle over ninety days… Whereas they share some similarities, there are differences between the hammer
    vs. biceps curls. For instance, as an alternative
    of utilizing a supinated grip (palms going through up), you will use a impartial grip.

    It’s involved in additional features together with advanced actions,
    like lifting your arm and rotating it when your elbow is at a 90-degree angle.

    What’s extra, I’m going to handle the most asked questions related to deltoids
    and shoulder exercises. I’m also going to offer you the simplest exercises and exercise tips for your deltoids,
    whatever the equipment you could have on hand. Whether Or Not you’ve
    a full gym or simply your physique weight, I’ve got a deltoid exercise for you.
    Although the deltoids may not be your top precedence
    in relation to muscle building and strength training,
    it’s critical that you just don’t overlook them.

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