Apuestas deportivas de teoría del zig-zag

octubre 26, 2023

La teoría del zig-zag es una estrategia de apuestas muy conocida y utilizada desde hace casi cuatro décadas. Se basa en la idea de que los equipos, después de experimentar una derrota, a menudo sienten una sensación de desesperación y es más probable que se recuperen y ganen el siguiente juego o serie.

Según la teoría, si apuestas por el equipo que acaba de perder, tienes más posibilidades (más del 50%) de ganar el próximo partido. Las cuotas para el equipo que sufrió la derrota suelen ser más favorables para los apostadores experimentados.

En una serie de 7 juegos, el impulso tiende a variar entre equipos, y la teoría del zig-zag es un método popular que utilizan los handicap para aprovechar estos cambios de impulso. Al comprender y utilizar esta teoría, los apostadores pueden tomar decisiones informadas con respecto a las apuestas de línea de dinero y contra el diferencial (ATS).

¿De dónde viene la teoría del Zig-Zag?

Tony Salinas, un reconocido handicap deportivo, creó la teoría del zig-zag. Salinas inicialmente desarrolló esta teoría para su aplicación en los playoffs de la NBA, pero luego se descubrió que también se aplicaba a la NHL. Salinas creía que los apostadores a menudo pasaban por alto el impacto del juego anterior al establecer sus líneas para los partidos dentro de una serie, y en lugar de eso ponía excesivo énfasis en factores como la ventaja de jugar en casa.

Salinas observó que el cambio de impulso resultante de la derrota de un equipo en el juego anterior podría influir significativamente en el resultado de la siguiente ronda. Esta idea llevó al desarrollo de la teoría del zig-zag, que sugiere que apostar al equipo que perdió el juego anterior proporciona una ventaja debido al rebote anticipado en el rendimiento. Otros apostadores experimentados, comúnmente conocidos como «sharps», reconocieron la validez de este principio y comenzaron a aplicarlo tanto a los juegos de la NBA como de la NHL.

¿Cómo funciona la teoría del Zig-Zag sobre el papel?

La teoría del zig-zag está diseñada para aplicarse a series con un formato 2-2-1-1-1 comúnmente utilizado en los playoffs de la NBA y la NHL. En el pasado, las finales de la NBA tenían una configuración 2-3-1-1, pero se volvió a cambiar a la estructura original 2-2-1-1-1 en 2013 debido a preocupaciones sobre la ventaja otorgada a los clasificados más bajos. equipo.

Si bien se aplican algunas variaciones de la teoría del zig-zag a la NFL y la MLB, generalmente se considera menos relevante en estos deportes en comparación con la NBA y la NHL. Esto se debe a que la estructura específica del formato de la serie 2-2-1-1-1 es parte integral de la efectividad de la teoría. Fuera de este contexto, la teoría del zig-zag puede arrojar un nivel diferente de eficacia en la predicción de resultados.

La teoría del Zig Zag y los Playoffs de la NBA

La teoría del zig-zag se puede aplicar a los playoffs de la NBA, donde la ventaja de jugar en casa es un factor importante. Históricamente, los equipos locales de la NBA tienen un porcentaje de victorias más alto (64,5%) que la NHL (55,3%). Esto a menudo conduce a líneas de apuestas muy favorecidas para el equipo local, especialmente si gana el Juego 1 de la serie. Sin embargo, las estadísticas muestran que los equipos visitantes que pierden el primer juego ganan el segundo juego en poco más del 34% de las veces.

Aunque es más probable que el equipo local gane el segundo partido, esto aumenta el valor para los apostantes. Una tasa de ganancia del 34% no es insignificante y presenta una oportunidad sustancial para apostar en un resultado que ocurre más de un tercio de las veces.

Las probabilidades de que el equipo visitante gane el Juego 2 probablemente implican una probabilidad significativamente menor que el 34%. Esto se debe a una tendencia histórica a reaccionar exageradamente ante una derrota en un solo juego. Incluso si el equipo visitante sufre una derrota severa y vergonzosa en el juego anterior, eso no significa necesariamente que sus posibilidades de ganar el Juego 2 hayan disminuido por completo.

Estadísticas de la teoría del zig-zag

Examinemos algunas estadísticas agregadas que demuestran que los equipos se recuperan de derrotas en los playoffs de la NBA, lo que se alinea con los principios de la teoría del zig-zag.

  • Si el equipo visitante logra una sorpresa y gana el Juego 1 contra el favorito de la cancha local el 76% de las veces, el equipo local se recuperará y ganará el Juego 2. Por lo tanto, una sorpresa temprana no debería ser engañosa.
  • En los juegos 2, independientemente del enfrentamiento específico, el equipo que perdió el juego anterior cubre la diferencia el 56% del tiempo en su próximo partido.
  • Cuando el favorito local tiene una ventaja de 2-0 y realiza el Juego 3 como visitante, el favorito menos clasificado se desempeña bien cuando regresa a su cancha local. Históricamente, tienen una tasa de ganancia del 65% en el mercado de línea de dinero y un porcentaje de ganancia del 68% contra el diferencial. Ambos resultados ocurren aproximadamente dos tercios de las veces, lo cual es bastante significativo.
  • Los equipos favoritos que perdieron su último partido por cuatro puntos o más probablemente triunfarán contra el diferencial en su próximo partido. El récord de parejas en esta situación es 98-69, lo que equivale a un porcentaje de victorias del 58,7%.

Si bien estas estadísticas proporcionan un valioso punto de partida, es esencial considerar el contexto y evaluar cada línea individualmente. La teoría del zig-zag siempre debe usarse junto con su análisis para determinar si hay valor en una línea de apuestas en particular durante los playoffs de la NBA.

La teoría del Zig-Zag y las apuestas de la NHL

Con respecto a las apuestas de la NHL, la teoría del zig-zag se puede aplicar efectivamente cuando se apuesta a un equipo para evitar una barrida. En los playoffs de la NHL, es más común que un equipo intente evitar ser barrido para ganar el Juego 4 en lugar de ser limpiado a fondo. Desde el cierre patronal de la NHL en 2005, los equipos con un déficit de 0-3 han logrado ganar 26 de 45 juegos, lo que resulta en un porcentaje de victorias del 57,8%.

Al analizar los equipos en un hoyo 0-3, los que jugaron el Juego 4 en casa registraron un récord de 16-12 (57,1% de porcentaje de victorias), mientras que los equipos en la misma posición jugando como visitantes tuvieron un récord de 10-7 (58,8% de victorias). porcentaje).

Es importante tener en cuenta que es probable que el equipo que intente barrer sea muy favorecido por los sitios de apuestas de hockey en línea. Aunque las casas de apuestas consideran estadísticas relevantes, ajustan las líneas para generar un volumen de apuestas equilibrado. Puede resultar complicado imaginar que un equipo que ha perdido tres partidos consecutivos se reagrupe con éxito.

Sin embargo, es fundamental reconocer la determinación y las capacidades de un equipo de hockey desesperado que se enfrenta a la eliminación. Muchos apostadores pasan por alto las estadísticas subyacentes de las barridas, lo que los lleva a apostar por el equipo que ganó los tres juegos anteriores. Aprovechar la teoría del zig-zag en este escenario puede presentar valiosas oportunidades de apuestas.

La teoría del Zig-Zag es sólo una pieza del rompecabezas

Es importante no confiar únicamente en la teoría del zig-zag y considerarla como la única estrategia para las apuestas deportivas. En su lugar, se recomienda utilizar su conocimiento y experiencia deportivos para formarse juicios y conclusiones sobre las posibilidades de un equipo.

Mantenerse informado sobre las últimas estadísticas deportivas, actualizaciones sobre lesiones y ajustes de entrenamiento es crucial para realizar apuestas bien informadas. Cada serie de playoffs y juego dentro de una serie es único y está influenciado tanto por factores tangibles como por elementos intangibles. Además, la suerte puede desempeñar un papel importante en los resultados deportivos.

Como cualquier otra estrategia de apuestas deportivas, la teoría del zig-zag debe verse como sólo una herramienta en su repertorio de apuestas. No existe un método garantizado para ser un apostador exitoso. Lograr el éxito en las apuestas deportivas requiere trabajo duro, investigación exhaustiva, experiencia y un profundo conocimiento del deporte.

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