En las apuestas deportivas, los grandes apostadores han confiado durante mucho tiempo en el análisis estadístico para obtener una ventaja sobre las casas de apuestas deportivas. Una poderosa herramienta de su arsenal es la distribución de Poisson, una teoría de probabilidad desarrollada por Siméon Denis Poisson en el siglo XIX. Esta distribución permite a los apostadores aprovechar los datos deportivos históricos para predecir el resultado más probable de un evento deportivo.
Si bien no es infalible, comprender y aplicar la distribución de Poisson puede ser fundamental para una estrategia de apuestas exitosa, especialmente en deportes en los que la puntuación se produce en pequeños incrementos, como el fútbol, el hockey y ciertas apuestas de accesorios de la NFL.
¿Qué es una distribución de Poisson?
En esencia, la distribución de Poisson calcula la probabilidad de que ocurran eventos no relacionados dentro de un período específico, asumiendo que se conoce el número esperado de eventos. En el caso de las apuestas deportivas, esto significa utilizar los resultados históricos del juego para estimar la probabilidad de que se produzcan varios resultados potenciales en un evento futuro.
Cómo la distribución de Poisson mejora las predicciones de apuestas deportivas
La distribución de Poisson es una herramienta valiosa en las apuestas deportivas que ayuda a predecir el resultado final más probable de un evento deportivo.
Para ilustrar su aplicación, consideremos un partido de fútbol hipotético entre el Arsenal FC y el Chelsea FC, utilizando datos históricos de puntuación de la temporada 2017-2018 de la Premier League inglesa.
En primer lugar, recopilamos datos relevantes de la temporada:
Goles marcados en casa por todos los equipos de la EPL | Goles marcados como visitantes por todos los equipos de la EPL | Goles marcados en casa por el Arsenal | Goles permitidos en casa por el Arsenal | Goles marcados a domicilio por el Chelsea | Goles permitidos a domicilio por el Chelsea |
---|---|---|---|---|---|
Objetivos | 582 | 436 | 54 | 20 | 32 |
Partidos | 380 | 380 | 19 | 19 | 19 |
Goles/Partidos: Promedio | 1.532 | 1.147 | 2.842 | 1.053 | 1.684 |
Fuerza de ataque y fuerza de defensa
A continuación, calculamos la «Fuerza de ataque» y la «Fuerza de defensa» de cada equipo:
- Fuerza de ataque del Arsenal: 2,842 / 1,532 = 1,855
- Fuerza de ataque del Chelsea: 1,684 / 1,147 = 1,468
- Fuerza de defensa del Arsenal: 1,053 / 1,147 = 0,918
- Fuerza de defensa del Chelsea: 1,158 / 1,532 = 0,756
Predecir puntuaciones utilizando la estrategia de apuestas Poisson
Ahora, podemos predecir el número probable de goles que marcará cada equipo en el enfrentamiento:
- Probables goles marcados por el Arsenal = 1,855 x 0,756 x 1,532 = 2,148
- Probables goles marcados por el Chelsea = 1,468 x 0,918 x 1,147 = 1,546
Según estos cálculos, la media esperada de goles marcados en el partido sería:
- Arsenal: 2.148
- Chelsea: 1.546
Calculadoras de distribución de Poisson para determinar múltiples resultados
El siguiente paso es utilizar las calculadoras de distribución de Poisson disponibles en línea para determinar la probabilidad de una variedad de resultados de puntuación para cada equipo.
Objetivos | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Arsenal | 11.67% | 25.07% | 26.93% | 19.28% | 10.35% | 4.45% |
Chelsea | 21.31% | 32.95% | 25.47% | 13.12% | 5.07% | 1.57% |
Si bien la distribución de Poisson proporciona información valiosa sobre las probabilidades de puntuación, es esencial considerar ciertas limitaciones.
Factores como las lesiones, la dinámica del vestuario, las condiciones climáticas y las actuaciones inesperadas de los jugadores pueden afectar significativamente el resultado de un evento deportivo, haciendo que las predicciones basadas únicamente en datos estadísticos sean menos confiables.
Limitaciones de la distribución de Poisson en las apuestas deportivas
A pesar de su utilidad, la distribución de Poisson tiene limitaciones. No tiene en cuenta factores humanos como lesiones, dinámica del vestuario o actuaciones individuales inesperadas.
Las condiciones climáticas y los factores externos también pueden afectar el resultado de un juego. Como resultado, si bien la distribución de Poisson puede ofrecer información valiosa, no es garantía de éxito en las apuestas deportivas.
Mejorar sus habilidades estadísticas puede ayudarlo a obtener salarios más informados y mejorar sus posibilidades de encontrar valor en el tablero de probabilidades. Recuerde, las apuestas deportivas implican riesgos inherentes; Ninguna estrategia puede garantizar ganancias constantes.
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