Em relação às apostas no basquete universitário, métricas como os rankings KenPom e Sagarin são cruciais para orientar as decisões dos apostadores. Esses sistemas baseados em computador fornecem previsões para resultados de jogos e margens de vitória, que as casas de apostas costumam considerar ao definir suas probabilidades. Embora ambas as métricas ofereçam informações valiosas, os apostadores muitas vezes se perguntam em qual delas confiar para obter melhor precisão e aumentar as chances de sucesso.
Classificações de KenPom e Sagarin
KenPom e Sagarin são dois sistemas de classificação matemática proeminentes para prever resultados de jogos de basquete universitário. KenPom, desenvolvido por Ken Pomeroy, avalia os pontos fortes das equipes sem levar em consideração lesões ou elementos emocionais. Sua fórmula incorpora estatísticas como porcentagem de arremessos, margem de vitória e força do cronograma, fornecendo classificações de eficiência ofensiva, defensiva e geral. Por outro lado, as classificações de Sagarin visam atingir o mesmo objetivo preditivo, mas empregam um algoritmo diferente que precisa ser mais transparente.
O processo de tomada de decisão para apostadores
Os apostadores podem aproveitar as classificações KenPom e Sagarin para tomar decisões informadas. Normalmente, estas métricas estão estreitamente alinhadas, mas as divergências podem oferecer oportunidades para apostas de valor. Quando há uma diferença significativa nos resultados previstos entre KenPom e Sagarin, as apostas esportivas geralmente se inclinam para o KenPom, ajustando suas linhas de acordo. Os apostadores podem analisar essas discrepâncias e considerar optar por uma métrica mais precisa.
Comparando precisão
Uma comparação de precisão entre KenPom e Sagarin revela insights intrigantes. Nos casos em que ambas as métricas divergem e a distribuição de pontos real fica no meio, o KenPom tende a ser mais preciso. Um pequeno estudo de amostra de jogos de conferência de poder da temporada 2018-19 mostrou a maior porcentagem de precisão de KenPom na previsão de margens de vitória em comparação com Sagarin. Além disso, quando o spread de pontos real é maior ou menor do que ambas as previsões, as probabilidades das casas de apostas esportivas tendem a estar mais próximas do resultado, sugerindo que os criadores de probabilidades consideram fatores adicionais como lesões, histórico de confrontos diretos e desempenho recente.
Considerando lesões
As métricas KenPom e Sagarin têm limitações na contabilização de lesões. Eles assumem que as equipes terão um desempenho semelhante ao anterior, desconsiderando os possíveis impactos das ausências de jogadores importantes. Os apostadores, no entanto, podem capitalizar esta limitação monitorizando de perto as notícias sobre lesões e utilizando métricas e informações relacionadas com lesões para fazer previsões mais precisas. Em situações em que as casas de apostas podem inicialmente avaliar mal o impacto das lesões, os apostadores podem encontrar valor em apostar contra reações exageradas.
KenPom x Sagarin x Sportsbooks: resultados rastreados
Para manter a transparência, abaixo estão os resultados rastreados usados para avaliar a precisão das classificações KenPom e Sagarin em comparação com os spreads de pontos reais de uma casa de apostas esportivas online específica e os resultados de jogos de basquete universitário.
| Temporada 2018-19 | |||||
| Combate | Propagação KP | Sag. Espalhar | Spread real de apostas esportivas | Resultado | Remover |
| Duke at Notre Dame (Jan. 28) | Duke -14 | Duke -14.28 | Duke -15.5 | Duke wins (83-61) and covers. | Sagarin foi mais preciso que KenPom; as apostas esportivas eram mais precisas do que ambas. |
| TCU at Texas Tech (Jan. 28) | TT -5 | TT -4.26 | TT – 5.5 | TT wins (84-65) and covers. | Sagarin foi mais preciso que KenPom; as apostas esportivas eram mais precisas do que ambas. |
| Baylor at Oklahoma (Jan. 28) | Okla. -7 | Okla. -6.77 | Okla. -5.5 | Baylor wins (77-47) and covers. | Sagarin foi mais preciso que KenPom; as apostas esportivas eram mais precisas do que ambas. |
| MD Eastern Shore at Howard (Jan. 28) | Howard -15 | Howard -11.85 | Howard -13.5 | Howard wins (72-57) and covers. | Sagarin foi mais preciso que KenPom; as apostas esportivas eram mais precisas do que ambas. |
| NC Central at Savannah St (Jan. 28) | NCCU -3 | NCCU -4.78 | NCCU -2.5 | NC Central wins (82-78) and covers | KenPom and Sagarin were even; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Georgia at Arkansas (Jan. 29) | Ark. -7 | Ark. -5.98 | Ark. -7.5 | Arkansas wins (70-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Tennessee at South Carolina (Jan. 29) | Tenn. -12 | Tenn. -10.61 | Tenn. -8.5 | Tennessee wins (92-70) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Pittsburgh at Clemson (Jan. 29) | Clem. -6 | Clem. -7.46 | Clem. -9.5 | Clemson wins (82-69) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Kansas at Texas (Jan. 29) | Texas -1 | Kansas -2.69 | Texas -1.5 | Texas wins (73-63) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Lipscomb at Liberty (Jan. 29) | Liberty -4 | Liberty -0.02 | Liberty -2.5 | Lipscomb wins (79-59) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Ohio at No. Illinois (Jan. 29) | No. Ill. -9 | No. Ill. -6.34 | No. Ill. -4.5 | No. Ill. wins (71-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| North Carolina at Ga. Tech (Jan. 29) | UNC -8 | UNC -9.31 | UNC -11.0 | UNC wins (77-54) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Virginia at NC St. (Jan. 29) | UVA -10 | UVA -7.23 | UVA -7.5 | Virginia wins (66-65 OT). NC St. covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Missouri St. at Valparaiso (Jan. 29) | Valpo. -1 | Valpo. -2.46 | Missouri St. -3.5 | Missouri St. wins (55-54 OT). Valpo. covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Marquette at Butler (Jan. 30) | Butler -1 | Marquette -0.34 | Butler -2.5 | Marquette wins) 76-58) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Indiana at Rutgers (Jan. 30) | Indiana -2 | Indiana – 4.94 | Indiana -1.5 | Rutgers wins (66-58) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Providence at Seton Hall (Jan. 30) | Seton Hall -5 | Seton Hall -2.69 | Seton Hall -4.5 | Seton Hall wins (65-63). Providence covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was also more accurate than KenPom. |
| West Virginia at Iowa St. (Jan. 30) | Iowa St. -15 | Iowa St. -11.17 | Iowa St. -12.5 | Iowa St. wins (93-68) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| St. John’s at Creighton (Jan. 30) | Creighton -5 | Creighton – 3.66 | Creighton -4.0 | St. John’s wins (83-67) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Illinois at Minnesota (Jan. 30) | Minn. -6 | Minn. -7.28 | Minn. -6.5 | Minnesota wins (86-75) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| UCLA at Wash. St. (Jan. 30) | UCLA -6 | UCLA -7.13 | UCLA -4.5 | UCLA wins (87-67) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| USC at Washington (Jan. 30) | Wash. -9 | Wash. -6.96 | Wash. -7.0 | Washington wins (75-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Iona at Marist (Jan. 31) | Iona -2 | Iona -0.10 | Iona -1.0 | Marist wins (78-74) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| La. Monroe at Coastal Carolina (Jan. 31) | C.C. -4 | C.C. -3.03 | C.C. – 1.5 | Coastal Carolina wins (92-81) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| So. Miss at Fla. Int. (Jan. 31) | So. Miss. -2 | So. Miss. -0.05 | Fla. Int -1.0 | So. Miss. wins (89-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Temple at Houston (Jan. 31) | Houston -12 | Houston -10.82 | Houston -9.5 | Houston wins (73-66). Temple covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Tulane at East Carolina (Jan. 31) | E. Car. -6 | E. Car. -4.49 | E. Car. -5.0 | East Carolina wins (66-65). Tulane covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| UTEP at Marshall (Jan. 31) | Marshall -9 | Marshall -10.40 | Marshall -9.5 | Marshall wins (91-86). UTEP covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Tenn. Martin at Tenn. St. (Jan. 31) | Tenn. St -5 | Tenn. St. -3.78 | Tenn. St. -4.5 | Tenn St. wins (68-67). Tenn. Martin covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| UConn at UCF (Jan. 31) | UFC -6 | UCF – 7.93 | UCF – 7.5 | UCF wins (73-67). UConn covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| UMKC at New Mex. St. (Jan. 31) | NM St. -15 | NM St. -18.77 | NM St. -16.5 | NM St. wins (70-54). UMKC covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Portland St. at Weber St. | Weber -12 | Weber -10.68 | Weber -9.0 | Portland St. wins (76-75) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Pepperdine at Portland (Jan. 31) | Pepp. -7 | Pepp. -5.39 | Pepp. -4.5 | Pepp. wins (83-58) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Gonzaga at BYU (Jan. 31) | Gonzaga – 15 | Gonzaga -13.49 | Gonzaga -14.5 | Gonzaga wins (93-63) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Penn at Cornell (Feb. 1) | Penn -4 | Penn. -6.57 | Penn. -6.0 | Cornell wins (80-71) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| North Dakota at Western Ill. (Feb. 1) | W. Ill -5 | W. Ill. -2.46 | W. Ill – 3.0 | N. Dak. wins (74-73) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Davidson at St. Bonaventure (Feb. 1) | Dav. -1 | Dav. -3.08 | Dav. -1.5 | Davidson wins (75-66) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Michigan at Iowa (Feb. 1) | UM -4 | UM -3.42 | UM -5.5 | Iowa wins (74-59) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Colgate at Lehigh (Feb. 4) | Lehigh -4 | Lehigh – 5.07 | Lehigh -5.0 | Colgate wins (84-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Fairfield at Siena (Feb. 4) | Siena -5 | Siena – 3.97 | Siena -4.5 | Siena wins (61-5) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Marist at Canisius (Feb. 4) | Canisius -5 | Canisius -6.11 | Canisius -4.5 | Marist wins (78-71 OT) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| NC Cent. at Fla. A&M (Feb. 4) | Fla. A&M -4 | Fla. A&M -1.17 | Fla. A&M -2.0 | Fla. A&M wins (73-57) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Savannah St. at MD East. Shore (Feb. 4) | Savannah St. -3 | Savannah St. -0.92 | Savannah St. -2.0 | Savannah St. wins (68-63) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| S. Car. St. at Delaware St. (Feb. 4) | S. Car. St. -4 | S. Car. St. -5.25 | S. Car. St. -4.5 | Delaware St. wins (70-68) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Penn St. at Northwestern (Feb. 4) | Northwestern -5 | Northwestern -4.88 | Northwestern -3.5 | Penn St. wins (59-52) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Ala. A&M at Tex. Southern (Feb. 4) | Tex. Southern -18 | Tex. Southern -16.54 | Tex. Southern -17.5 | Tex. Southern wins (84-74). Ala. A&M covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Ark. Pine Bluff at Jackson St. (Feb. 4) | Jackson St. -5 | Jackson St. -3.27 | Jackson St. -4.5 | Jackson St. wins (65-52) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Iowa St. at Oklahoma (Feb. 4) | Iowa St -2 | Okla -0.33 | Iowa St. -3.0 | Iowa St. wins (74-73). Okla covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| West Virginia at Texas Tech (Feb. 4) | TT -13 | TT -10.85 | TT – 12.0 | Texas Tech wins (80-51) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| S. Utah at Idaho St. (Feb. 4) | S. Utah -4 | S. Utah -1.51 | S. Utah -5.0 | S. Utah wins (75-64) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Bowling Green at W. Mich. (Feb. 5) | B.G. -6 | B.g. -3.14 | B.G. -5.5 | Bowling Green wins (85-72) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Drake at Loyola-Chicago (Feb. 5) | Loyola-Chi. -2 | Loyola-Chi. -3.62 | Loyola-Chi. -7.0 | Loyola-Chi. wins (86-64) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Miami Oh. at Kent St. (Feb. 5) | Kent St. -3 | Kent St. -4.42 | Kent St. -4.0 | Kent St. wins (70-67). Miami-Oh. covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Mich St. at Illinois (Feb. 5) | Mich St. -12 | Mich St. -12.56 | Mich St. -10.0 | Illinois wins (79-74) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Pitt at Wake Forest (Feb. 5) | Pitt -5 | Pitt -2.96 | Pitt – 3.0 | W.F. wins (78-76 OT) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| St. Joseph’s at La Salle (Feb. 5) | La Salle -2 | St. Joe’s -0.82 | La Salle -1.5 | La Salle wins (83-69) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Ball St. at UNI (Feb. 5) | UNI -3 | UNI -1.97 | UNI -2.5 | Ball St. wins (72-71) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Florida at Auburn (Feb. 5) | Auburn -7 | Auburn -6.97 | Auburn -8.0 | Auburn wins (76-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Utah St. at Fresno St. (Feb. 5) | Utah St -1 | Fresno St. -2.03 | Utah St. -2.0 | Utah St. wins (82-81). Fresno St. covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| San Diego St. at New Mexico (Feb. 5) | N.M -1 | SD St. -1.25 | SD St. -2.5 | N.M. wins (83-70) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Fordham at UMass (Feb. 6) | UMass -7 | UMass-8.02 | UMass -5.5 | Fordham wins (85-67) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Kennesaw St. at Jacksonville (Feb. 6) | Jacksonville -13 | Jacksonville -10.83 | Jacksonville -11.5 | Jacksonville wins (82-73). KST covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Lipscomb at North Fla. (Feb. 6) | Lipscomb -12 | Lipscomb -9.66 | Lipscomb -11.0 | Lipscomb wins (92-55) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell (Feb. 6) | UMass-Lowell -16 | UMass-Lowell -11.30 | UMass-Lowell -13.5 | UMass-Lowell wins (72-62). UNH covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Notre Dame at Miami (Feb. 6) | Miami -3 | Miami -2.09 | Miami -3.5 | Miami wins (62-47) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Rhode Is. at Davidson (Feb. 6) | Davidson -6 | Davidson -5.66 | Davidson -5.0 | Davidson wins (68-53) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Texas A&M at Ole Miss (Feb. 6) | Ole Miss -11 | Ole Miss -8.04 | Ole Miss – 9.0 | Ole Miss wins (75-71). A&M covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Georgetown at Providence (Feb. 6) | Providence -4 | Providence -4.26 | Providence -5.5 | Georgetown wins (76-67) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Bradley at UNI (Feb. 6) | UNI -5 | UNI -3.93 | UNI -4.5 | Bradley wins (79-71) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Creighton at Villanova (Feb. 6) | Villanova -8 | Villanova -9.77 | Villanova -9.0 | Villanova wins (66-59 OT). Creighton covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| SE Louisiana at Texas A&M C.C. (Feb. 6) | Texas A&M C.C. -5 | Texas A&M C.C. -3.23 | Texas A&M C.C. -3.5 | SE Louisiana wins (64-58) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| So. Ill at Missouri St. (Feb. 6) | Missouri St. -3 | Missouri St. -1.09 | Missouri St. -4.5 | Missouri St. (65-59) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| SFA at Houston Bapt.(Feb. 6) | Houston Bapt. -3 | SFA -0.94 | Houston Bapt. -1.5 | SFA wins (79-77) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Georgia at Alabama (Feb. 6) | Alabama -9 | Alabama -7.22 | Alabama -8.0 | Alabama wins (89-74) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Wisconsin at Minnesota (Feb. 6) | Wisconsin -4 | Wisconsin -3.64 | Wisconsin -2.5 | Wisconsin wins (56-51) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Nevada at Colorado St. (Feb. 6) | Nevada -12 | Nevada -14.20 | Nevada -13.0 | Nevada wins (98-82) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Kent St. at Akron (Feb. 8) | Akron -6 | Akron -2.73 | Akron -4.0 | Akron wins (72-53) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Penn at Brown (Feb. 8) | Brown -3 | Brown -0.01 | Brown -1.0 | Penn wins (92-82) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Cornell at Dartmouth (Feb. 8) | Dartmouth -7 | Dartmouth -3.69 | Dartmouth -3.5 | Cornell wins (83-80) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Ga. Southern at UL Monroe (Feb. 8) | UL Monroe -1 | Ga. Southern -0.40 | PK | UL Monroe wins (88-79) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Ga. State at Louisiana (Feb. 8) | Ga. State -3 | Ga. State -1.86 | Louisiana -1.0 | Louisiana wins (76-72) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Columbia at Harvard (Feb. 8) | Harvard -14 | Harvard -13.97 | Harvard -10.5 | Harvard wins (98-96 OT). Columbia covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Canisius at Rider (Feb. 8) | Rider -8 | Rider -6.60 | Rider -9.0 | Canisius wins (81-80) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| St. Louis at St. Joseph’s (Feb. 8) | St. Louis -3 | St. Louis -0.97 | St. Louis -2.5 | St. Joe’s wins (91-61) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Princeton at Yale (Feb. 8) | Yale -9 | Yale -7.87 | Yale -8.0 | Yale wins (74-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| 2017-18 Season | |||||
| Matchup | KP Spread | Sag. Spread | Actual Spread | Outcome | Takeaway |
| Bucknell at Lafayette (Jan. 8) | Bucknell -7 | Bucknell -9.5 | Bucknell -11.0 | Bucknell wins (80-75 OT), Lafayette covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was too high on Bucknell. |
| Jackson St. at Southern (Jan. 8) | Southern -6 | Southern -5.12 | Southern -7.0 | Jackson State wins (65-61) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was too high on Jackson State. |
| Baylor at West Virginia (Jan. 9) | W.V. -8 | W.V. -13.4 | W.V. -9.5 | West Virginia wins (57-54); Baylor covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was too high on WV. |
| Texas Tech at Oklahoma (Jan. 9) | T.T. -1 | Okla. -2.2 | Okla. -2.0 | Okla. wins (75-65) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook (slightly); the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Butler at Creighton (Jan. 9) | Creighton -7 | Creighton -6.4 | Creighton -7.0 | Creighton wins (85-74) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Purdue at Michigan (Jan. 9) | Purdue -2 | Purdue -2.4 | Pur -2.0 | Purdue wins (70-69); Michigan covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Ole Miss at Auburn (Jan. 9) | Aub. -12 | Aub. -17.0 | Aub. -10.5 | Auburn wins (85-70) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was too high on Ole Miss. |
| Dayton at Richmond (Jan. 9) | Dayton -1 | Dayton -5.4 | Dayton -2.5 | Dayton wins (87-81) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Kansas at Iowa State (Jan. 9) | Kansas -9 | Kansas -20 | Kansas -16.0 | Kansas wins (83-78); Iowa State covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Syracuse at Virginia (Jan. 9) | Virginia -12 | Virginia -15.75 | Virginia -9.5 | Virginia wins (68-61); Syracuse covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Duke at Pittsburgh (Jan. 10) | Duke -14 | Duke -16.01 | Duke -20.0 | Duke wins (87-52) and covers | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Louisville at Florida State (Jan. 10) | FSU -6 | FSU -9.82 | FSU -6.0 | Louisville wins (73-69) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; KenPom tied with the sportsbook. |
| OK State at Kansas State (Jan. 10) | Kansas State -5 | Kansas State -5.99 | Kansas State -3.0 | Kansas State wins (86-82) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Colorado at USC (Jan. 10) | USC -10 | USC -8.69 | USC -11.0 | USC wins (70-58) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Va. Tech at Wake Forest (Jan. 10) | Wake -1 | Va. Tech -2.43 | Wake -2.0 | Va. Tech wins (83-75) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Duke at Miami (Jan. 15) | Duke -2 | Duke -2.3 | Duke -4.0 | Duke wins (83-75) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Kansas at West Virginia (Jan. 15) | WV -3 | WV -4.6 | WV -5.5 | Kansas wins (71-66) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Illinois at Nebraska (Jan. 15) | Nebraska -5 | Nebraska -7.74 | Nebraska -4.5 | Nebraska wins (64-63); Illinois covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| DePaul at Marquette (Jan. 15) | Marquette -10 | Marquette -14.99 | Marquette -9.5 | Marquette wins (70-52) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Cincinnati at UCF (Jan. 16) | Cincinnati -6 | Cincinnati -6.04 | Cincinnati -7.5 | Cincinnati wins (49-38) and covers. | Sagarin was slightly more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Purdue at Wisconsin (Jan. 16) | Purdue -17 | Purdue -23.04 | Purdue -14.5 | Purdue wins (78-50) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; both metrics were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Clemson at North Carolina (Jan. 16) | UNC -6 | UNC -5.06 | UNC -7.5 | UNC wins (87-79) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Oklahoma at Kansas State (Jan. 16) | Okla. -1 | Okla. -4.73 | Okla. -2.0 | K-State wins (87-69) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Kentucky at South Carolina (Jan. 16) | UK -3 | UK -4.08 | UK -1.5 | So. Car. wins (76-68) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| SMU at Wichita State (Jan. 17) | Wich. St. -7.5 | Wich. St. -13.01 | Wich. St. -8.5 | SMU wins (83-78) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Auburn at Alabama (Jan. 17) | Auburn -1 | Auburn -4.00 | Auburn -2.0 | Alabama wins (76-71) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| St. John’s at Xavier (Jan. 17) | Xavier -12 | Xavier -14.73 | Xavier -11.5 | Xavier wins (88-82); St. John’s covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Iowa State at TCU (Jan. 17) | TCU -12 | TCU -13.56 | TCU -10.5 | TCU wins (96-73) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Arizona St. at Stanford (Jan. 17) | ASU -5 | ASU -8.20 | ASU -3.5 | Stanford wins (86-77) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Illinois at Wisconsin (Jan. 19) | Wisc. -4 | Wisc. -5.41 | Wisc. -4.5 | Wisc. wins (75-50) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate that KenPom. |
| St. Bonaventure at Davidson (Jan. 19) | Dav. -4 | St. Bon. -1.53 | Dav. -5.0 | Davidson wins (83-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Arizona at Wash. St. (Jan. 31) | Ari. -8 | Ari. -10.50 | Ari. -12.0 | Arizona wins (100-72) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| LSU at Tennessee (Jan. 31) | Tenn. -11 | Tenn.-12.28 | Tenn. -9.5 | Tennessee wins (84-61) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Missouri at Alabama (Jan. 31) | Bama -3 | Bama -3.52 | Bama -5.5 | Missouri wins (69-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Florida St. at Wake Forest (Jan. 31) | FSU -4 | FSU -7.07 | FSU -4.5 | Wake wins (76-72) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Fairfield at Monmouth (Feb. 2) | Mon. -7 | Mon. -6.78 | Mon. -2.5 | Fairfield wins (79-78) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Canisius at Marist (Feb. 2) | Can. -7 | Can. -9.13 | Can. -8.0 | Canisius wins (73-67); Marist covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Harvard at Columbia (Feb. 2) | Pick’em | Harvard -3.10 | Harvard -1.5 | Columbia wins (83-76) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Illinois Chicago at Oakland (Feb. 2) | Oak. -9 | Oak. -11.27 | Oak. -8.0 | Ill.-Chi. wins (79-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Indiana at Rutgers (Feb. 5) | Rutgers -1 | Indiana -0.88 | Indiana -3.0 | Indiana wins (65-43) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| West Virginia at Oklahoma (Feb. 5) | Okla. -1 | Okla. -3.49 | Okla. -3.0 | W.V. wins (757-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Southern at Jackson St. (Feb. 5) | Jack. St -1 | Jack. St -5.06 | Jack. St -2.0 | Southern wins (67-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Colorado State at Air Force (Feb. 6) | Pick’em | Air Force -0.48 | Air Force -2.5 | Air Force wins (78-73) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| So. Car at Arkansas (Feb. 6) | Ark. -6 | Ark. -8.96 | Ark. -7.0 | Ark.wins (81-65) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Missouri St. at Indiana St. (Feb. 6) | Ind. St. -3 | Ind. St. -0.59 | Ind. St. -1.5 | Missouri St. wins (81-62) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Xavier at Butler (Feb. 6) | Butler -3 | Xavier -0.54 | Butler -3.5 | Xavier wins (98-93) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Tennessee at Kentucky (Feb. 6) | Tenn. -2 | UK -0.47 | UK -1.5 | Tenn. wins (61-59) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; Sagarin was more accurate than the sportsbook. |
Nas apostas no basquete universitário, a utilização de sistemas de previsão como KenPom e Sagarin pode aumentar suas chances de sucesso. Embora não exista uma fórmula infalível para ganhar todas as apostas, os dados históricos indicam que as previsões de KenPom são frequentemente mais precisas do que as de Sagarin. Quando KenPom e Sagarin diferem nos resultados previstos e o spread de pontos real fica no meio, os apostadores podem encontrar valor em apoiar a previsão de KenPom. Além disso, manter-se informado sobre notícias sobre lesões pode proporcionar mais oportunidades para decisões de apostas informadas.
Lembre-se de que as apostas sempre envolvem riscos e é essencial exercer práticas de jogo responsáveis. Ao combinar KenPom, Sagarin e insights de notícias sobre lesões, você pode tomar decisões mais informadas e aumentar suas chances de sucesso nas apostas no basquete universitário.