Usando a distribuição de Poisson em sua estratégia de apostas esportivas

BY markoh Dezembro 5, 2023

Nas apostas desportivas, os apostadores perspicazes confiam há muito tempo na análise estatística para obter vantagem sobre as apostas desportivas. Uma ferramenta poderosa no seu arsenal é a distribuição de Poisson, uma teoria de probabilidade desenvolvida por Siméon Denis Poisson no século XIX. Esta distribuição permite aos apostadores aproveitar dados desportivos históricos para prever o resultado mais provável de um evento desportivo.

Embora não seja infalível, compreender e aplicar a distribuição de Poisson pode ser fundamental para uma estratégia de apostas bem-sucedida, especialmente para esportes onde a pontuação ocorre em pequenos incrementos, como futebol, hóquei e certas apostas em adereços da NFL.

O que é uma distribuição de Poisson?

Basicamente, a distribuição de Poisson calcula a probabilidade de eventos não relacionados ocorrerem dentro de um período específico, assumindo que o número esperado de eventos é conhecido. Para apostas desportivas, isto significa utilizar resultados históricos de jogos para estimar a probabilidade de vários resultados potenciais num evento futuro.

Como a distribuição de Poisson melhora as previsões de apostas esportivas

A distribuição de Poisson é uma ferramenta valiosa nas apostas desportivas que ajuda a prever o resultado final mais provável de um evento desportivo.

Para ilustrar a sua aplicação, consideremos um jogo de futebol hipotético entre o Arsenal FC e o Chelsea FC, utilizando dados históricos de pontuação da temporada 2017-2018 da Premier League inglesa.

Primeiro, reunimos dados relevantes da temporada:

Gols marcados em casa por todas as equipes da EPL Gols marcados fora de casa por todas as equipes da EPL Gols marcados em casa pelo Arsenal Gols permitidos em casa pelo Arsenal Gols marcados fora de casa pelo Chelsea Gols permitidos fora de casa pelo Chelsea
Metas 582 436 54 20 32
Partidas 380 380 19 19 19
Gols/Partidas: Média 1.532 1.147 2.842 1.053 1.684

 

Força de Ataque e Força de Defesa

A seguir, calculamos a “Força de Ataque” e a “Força de Defesa” de cada equipe:

  • Força de ataque do Arsenal: 2,842 / 1,532 = 1,855
  • Força de ataque do Chelsea: 1,684 / 1,147 = 1,468
  • Força de defesa do Arsenal: 1,053 / 1,147 = 0,918
  • Força de defesa do Chelsea: 1,158 / 1,532 = 0,756

Previsão de pontuações usando estratégia de apostas Poisson

Agora, podemos prever o número provável de gols que cada equipe marcará no confronto:

  • Prováveis ​​gols marcados pelo Arsenal = 1,855 x 0,756 x 1,532 = 2,148
  • Prováveis ​​gols marcados pelo Chelsea = 1,468 x 0,918 x 1,147 = 1,546

Com base nesses cálculos, a média esperada de gols marcados na partida seria:

  • Arsenal: 2.148
  • Chelsea: 1.546

Calculadoras de distribuição de Poisson para determinar resultados múltiplos

A próxima etapa é usar calculadoras de distribuição de Poisson disponíveis online para determinar a probabilidade de uma série de resultados de pontuação para cada equipe.

 

Metas 0 1 2 3 4 5
Arsenal 11.67% 25.07% 26.93% 19.28% 10.35% 4.45%
Chelsea 21.31% 32.95% 25.47% 13.12% 5.07% 1.57%

 

Embora a distribuição de Poisson forneça informações valiosas sobre as probabilidades de pontuação, é essencial considerar certas limitações.

Fatores como lesões, dinâmica do vestiário, condições climáticas e desempenho inesperado dos jogadores podem impactar significativamente o resultado de um evento esportivo, tornando as previsões baseadas apenas em dados estatísticos menos confiáveis.

Limitações da Distribuição de Poisson nas Apostas Esportivas

Apesar da sua utilidade, a distribuição de Poisson tem limitações. Não leva em conta fatores humanos como lesões, dinâmica de vestiário ou desempenhos individuais inesperados.

As condições climáticas e fatores externos também podem afetar o resultado de um jogo. Como resultado, embora a distribuição de Poisson possa oferecer informações valiosas, não é uma garantia de sucesso nas apostas desportivas.

Aprimorar suas habilidades estatísticas pode ajudá-lo a obter salários mais informados e aumentar suas chances de encontrar valor no quadro de probabilidades. Lembre-se de que as apostas desportivas envolvem riscos inerentes; nenhuma estratégia pode garantir ganhos consistentes.

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