En cuanto a las apuestas en baloncesto universitario, métricas como las clasificaciones KenPom y Sagarin son cruciales para guiar las decisiones de los apostadores. Estos sistemas informáticos proporcionan predicciones sobre los resultados de los juegos y los márgenes de victoria, que las casas de apuestas suelen tener en cuenta al establecer sus probabilidades. Si bien ambas métricas ofrecen información valiosa, los apostadores a menudo se preguntan en cuál confiar para obtener una mayor precisión y mayores posibilidades de éxito.
Rankings KenPom y Sagarin
KenPom y Sagarin son dos sistemas de clasificación matemática destacados para predecir los resultados de los partidos de baloncesto universitario. KenPom, desarrollado por Ken Pomeroy, evalúa las fortalezas de los equipos sin tener en cuenta lesiones o elementos emocionales. Su fórmula incorpora estadísticas como porcentaje de tiros, margen de victoria y solidez del calendario, proporcionando calificaciones de eficiencia ofensiva, defensiva y general. Por otro lado, las clasificaciones de Sagarin pretenden lograr el mismo objetivo predictivo pero emplean un algoritmo diferente que debe ser más transparente.
El proceso de toma de decisiones para los apostadores
Los apostadores pueden aprovechar las clasificaciones de KenPom y Sagarin para tomar decisiones informadas. Normalmente, estas métricas se alinean estrechamente, pero las divergencias pueden ofrecer oportunidades para realizar apuestas de valor. Cuando hay una diferencia significativa en los resultados previstos entre KenPom y Sagarin, las casas de apuestas a menudo se inclinan hacia KenPom y ajustan sus líneas en consecuencia. Los apostadores pueden analizar estas discrepancias y considerar ponerse del lado de la métrica más precisa.
Comparación de precisión
Una comparación de la precisión entre KenPom y Sagarin revela ideas intrigantes. En los casos en los que ambas métricas divergen y la diferencia de puntos real se encuentra en el medio, KenPom tiende a ser más preciso. Un estudio de tamaño de muestra pequeño de juegos de conferencias de poder de la temporada 2018-19 mostró el mayor porcentaje de precisión de KenPom al predecir los márgenes de victoria en comparación con Sagarin. Además, cuando la diferencia de puntos real es mayor o menor que ambas predicciones, las probabilidades de las casas de apuestas tienden a estar más cerca del resultado, lo que sugiere que los apostadores consideran factores adicionales como lesiones, historial de enfrentamientos directos y desempeño reciente.
Considerando las lesiones
Tanto las métricas de KenPom como las de Sagarin tienen limitaciones a la hora de contabilizar las lesiones. Suponen que los equipos se desempeñarán de manera similar a sus actuaciones pasadas, sin tener en cuenta los posibles impactos de las ausencias de jugadores clave. Sin embargo, los apostadores pueden aprovechar esta limitación monitoreando de cerca las noticias sobre lesiones y utilizando métricas e información relacionada con las lesiones para hacer predicciones más precisas. En situaciones en las que las casas de apuestas pueden inicialmente juzgar mal el impacto de las lesiones, los apostadores pueden encontrar valor en apostar contra reacciones exageradas.
KenPom vs. Sagarin vs. Apuestas deportivas: seguimiento de resultados
Para mantener la transparencia, a continuación se proporcionan los resultados rastreados utilizados para evaluar la precisión de las clasificaciones de KenPom y Sagarin en comparación con los diferenciales de puntos reales de una casa de apuestas en línea específica y los resultados de los juegos de baloncesto universitario.
| Temporada 2018-19 | |||||
| Emparejar | Propagación KP | Hundimiento. Desparramar | Spread real de apuestas deportivas | Resultado | Llevar |
| Duke at Notre Dame (Jan. 28) | Duke -14 | Duke -14.28 | Duke -15.5 | Duke wins (83-61) and covers. | Sagarin fue más preciso que KenPom; la casa de apuestas fue más precisa que ambas. |
| TCU at Texas Tech (Jan. 28) | TT -5 | TT -4.26 | TT – 5.5 | TT wins (84-65) and covers. | Sagarin fue más preciso que KenPom; la casa de apuestas fue más precisa que ambas. |
| Baylor at Oklahoma (Jan. 28) | Okla. -7 | Okla. -6.77 | Okla. -5.5 | Baylor wins (77-47) and covers. | Sagarin fue más preciso que KenPom; la casa de apuestas fue más precisa que ambas. |
| MD Eastern Shore at Howard (Jan. 28) | Howard -15 | Howard -11.85 | Howard -13.5 | Howard wins (72-57) and covers. | Sagarin fue más preciso que KenPom; la casa de apuestas fue más precisa que ambas. |
| NC Central at Savannah St (Jan. 28) | NCCU -3 | NCCU -4.78 | NCCU -2.5 | NC Central wins (82-78) and covers | KenPom and Sagarin were even; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Georgia at Arkansas (Jan. 29) | Ark. -7 | Ark. -5.98 | Ark. -7.5 | Arkansas wins (70-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Tennessee at South Carolina (Jan. 29) | Tenn. -12 | Tenn. -10.61 | Tenn. -8.5 | Tennessee wins (92-70) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Pittsburgh at Clemson (Jan. 29) | Clem. -6 | Clem. -7.46 | Clem. -9.5 | Clemson wins (82-69) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Kansas at Texas (Jan. 29) | Texas -1 | Kansas -2.69 | Texas -1.5 | Texas wins (73-63) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Lipscomb at Liberty (Jan. 29) | Liberty -4 | Liberty -0.02 | Liberty -2.5 | Lipscomb wins (79-59) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Ohio at No. Illinois (Jan. 29) | No. Ill. -9 | No. Ill. -6.34 | No. Ill. -4.5 | No. Ill. wins (71-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| North Carolina at Ga. Tech (Jan. 29) | UNC -8 | UNC -9.31 | UNC -11.0 | UNC wins (77-54) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Virginia at NC St. (Jan. 29) | UVA -10 | UVA -7.23 | UVA -7.5 | Virginia wins (66-65 OT). NC St. covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Missouri St. at Valparaiso (Jan. 29) | Valpo. -1 | Valpo. -2.46 | Missouri St. -3.5 | Missouri St. wins (55-54 OT). Valpo. covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Marquette at Butler (Jan. 30) | Butler -1 | Marquette -0.34 | Butler -2.5 | Marquette wins) 76-58) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Indiana at Rutgers (Jan. 30) | Indiana -2 | Indiana – 4.94 | Indiana -1.5 | Rutgers wins (66-58) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Providence at Seton Hall (Jan. 30) | Seton Hall -5 | Seton Hall -2.69 | Seton Hall -4.5 | Seton Hall wins (65-63). Providence covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was also more accurate than KenPom. |
| West Virginia at Iowa St. (Jan. 30) | Iowa St. -15 | Iowa St. -11.17 | Iowa St. -12.5 | Iowa St. wins (93-68) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| St. John’s at Creighton (Jan. 30) | Creighton -5 | Creighton – 3.66 | Creighton -4.0 | St. John’s wins (83-67) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Illinois at Minnesota (Jan. 30) | Minn. -6 | Minn. -7.28 | Minn. -6.5 | Minnesota wins (86-75) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| UCLA at Wash. St. (Jan. 30) | UCLA -6 | UCLA -7.13 | UCLA -4.5 | UCLA wins (87-67) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| USC at Washington (Jan. 30) | Wash. -9 | Wash. -6.96 | Wash. -7.0 | Washington wins (75-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Iona at Marist (Jan. 31) | Iona -2 | Iona -0.10 | Iona -1.0 | Marist wins (78-74) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| La. Monroe at Coastal Carolina (Jan. 31) | C.C. -4 | C.C. -3.03 | C.C. – 1.5 | Coastal Carolina wins (92-81) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| So. Miss at Fla. Int. (Jan. 31) | So. Miss. -2 | So. Miss. -0.05 | Fla. Int -1.0 | So. Miss. wins (89-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Temple at Houston (Jan. 31) | Houston -12 | Houston -10.82 | Houston -9.5 | Houston wins (73-66). Temple covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Tulane at East Carolina (Jan. 31) | E. Car. -6 | E. Car. -4.49 | E. Car. -5.0 | East Carolina wins (66-65). Tulane covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| UTEP at Marshall (Jan. 31) | Marshall -9 | Marshall -10.40 | Marshall -9.5 | Marshall wins (91-86). UTEP covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Tenn. Martin at Tenn. St. (Jan. 31) | Tenn. St -5 | Tenn. St. -3.78 | Tenn. St. -4.5 | Tenn St. wins (68-67). Tenn. Martin covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| UConn at UCF (Jan. 31) | UFC -6 | UCF – 7.93 | UCF – 7.5 | UCF wins (73-67). UConn covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| UMKC at New Mex. St. (Jan. 31) | NM St. -15 | NM St. -18.77 | NM St. -16.5 | NM St. wins (70-54). UMKC covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Portland St. at Weber St. | Weber -12 | Weber -10.68 | Weber -9.0 | Portland St. wins (76-75) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Pepperdine at Portland (Jan. 31) | Pepp. -7 | Pepp. -5.39 | Pepp. -4.5 | Pepp. wins (83-58) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Gonzaga at BYU (Jan. 31) | Gonzaga – 15 | Gonzaga -13.49 | Gonzaga -14.5 | Gonzaga wins (93-63) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Penn at Cornell (Feb. 1) | Penn -4 | Penn. -6.57 | Penn. -6.0 | Cornell wins (80-71) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| North Dakota at Western Ill. (Feb. 1) | W. Ill -5 | W. Ill. -2.46 | W. Ill – 3.0 | N. Dak. wins (74-73) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Davidson at St. Bonaventure (Feb. 1) | Dav. -1 | Dav. -3.08 | Dav. -1.5 | Davidson wins (75-66) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Michigan at Iowa (Feb. 1) | UM -4 | UM -3.42 | UM -5.5 | Iowa wins (74-59) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Colgate at Lehigh (Feb. 4) | Lehigh -4 | Lehigh – 5.07 | Lehigh -5.0 | Colgate wins (84-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Fairfield at Siena (Feb. 4) | Siena -5 | Siena – 3.97 | Siena -4.5 | Siena wins (61-5) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Marist at Canisius (Feb. 4) | Canisius -5 | Canisius -6.11 | Canisius -4.5 | Marist wins (78-71 OT) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| NC Cent. at Fla. A&M (Feb. 4) | Fla. A&M -4 | Fla. A&M -1.17 | Fla. A&M -2.0 | Fla. A&M wins (73-57) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Savannah St. at MD East. Shore (Feb. 4) | Savannah St. -3 | Savannah St. -0.92 | Savannah St. -2.0 | Savannah St. wins (68-63) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| S. Car. St. at Delaware St. (Feb. 4) | S. Car. St. -4 | S. Car. St. -5.25 | S. Car. St. -4.5 | Delaware St. wins (70-68) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Penn St. at Northwestern (Feb. 4) | Northwestern -5 | Northwestern -4.88 | Northwestern -3.5 | Penn St. wins (59-52) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Ala. A&M at Tex. Southern (Feb. 4) | Tex. Southern -18 | Tex. Southern -16.54 | Tex. Southern -17.5 | Tex. Southern wins (84-74). Ala. A&M covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Ark. Pine Bluff at Jackson St. (Feb. 4) | Jackson St. -5 | Jackson St. -3.27 | Jackson St. -4.5 | Jackson St. wins (65-52) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Iowa St. at Oklahoma (Feb. 4) | Iowa St -2 | Okla -0.33 | Iowa St. -3.0 | Iowa St. wins (74-73). Okla covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| West Virginia at Texas Tech (Feb. 4) | TT -13 | TT -10.85 | TT – 12.0 | Texas Tech wins (80-51) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| S. Utah at Idaho St. (Feb. 4) | S. Utah -4 | S. Utah -1.51 | S. Utah -5.0 | S. Utah wins (75-64) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Bowling Green at W. Mich. (Feb. 5) | B.G. -6 | B.g. -3.14 | B.G. -5.5 | Bowling Green wins (85-72) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Drake at Loyola-Chicago (Feb. 5) | Loyola-Chi. -2 | Loyola-Chi. -3.62 | Loyola-Chi. -7.0 | Loyola-Chi. wins (86-64) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Miami Oh. at Kent St. (Feb. 5) | Kent St. -3 | Kent St. -4.42 | Kent St. -4.0 | Kent St. wins (70-67). Miami-Oh. covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Mich St. at Illinois (Feb. 5) | Mich St. -12 | Mich St. -12.56 | Mich St. -10.0 | Illinois wins (79-74) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Pitt at Wake Forest (Feb. 5) | Pitt -5 | Pitt -2.96 | Pitt – 3.0 | W.F. wins (78-76 OT) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| St. Joseph’s at La Salle (Feb. 5) | La Salle -2 | St. Joe’s -0.82 | La Salle -1.5 | La Salle wins (83-69) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Ball St. at UNI (Feb. 5) | UNI -3 | UNI -1.97 | UNI -2.5 | Ball St. wins (72-71) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Florida at Auburn (Feb. 5) | Auburn -7 | Auburn -6.97 | Auburn -8.0 | Auburn wins (76-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Utah St. at Fresno St. (Feb. 5) | Utah St -1 | Fresno St. -2.03 | Utah St. -2.0 | Utah St. wins (82-81). Fresno St. covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| San Diego St. at New Mexico (Feb. 5) | N.M -1 | SD St. -1.25 | SD St. -2.5 | N.M. wins (83-70) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Fordham at UMass (Feb. 6) | UMass -7 | UMass-8.02 | UMass -5.5 | Fordham wins (85-67) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Kennesaw St. at Jacksonville (Feb. 6) | Jacksonville -13 | Jacksonville -10.83 | Jacksonville -11.5 | Jacksonville wins (82-73). KST covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Lipscomb at North Fla. (Feb. 6) | Lipscomb -12 | Lipscomb -9.66 | Lipscomb -11.0 | Lipscomb wins (92-55) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| New Hampshire at UMass-Lowell (Feb. 6) | UMass-Lowell -16 | UMass-Lowell -11.30 | UMass-Lowell -13.5 | UMass-Lowell wins (72-62). UNH covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Notre Dame at Miami (Feb. 6) | Miami -3 | Miami -2.09 | Miami -3.5 | Miami wins (62-47) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Rhode Is. at Davidson (Feb. 6) | Davidson -6 | Davidson -5.66 | Davidson -5.0 | Davidson wins (68-53) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Texas A&M at Ole Miss (Feb. 6) | Ole Miss -11 | Ole Miss -8.04 | Ole Miss – 9.0 | Ole Miss wins (75-71). A&M covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Georgetown at Providence (Feb. 6) | Providence -4 | Providence -4.26 | Providence -5.5 | Georgetown wins (76-67) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Bradley at UNI (Feb. 6) | UNI -5 | UNI -3.93 | UNI -4.5 | Bradley wins (79-71) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Creighton at Villanova (Feb. 6) | Villanova -8 | Villanova -9.77 | Villanova -9.0 | Villanova wins (66-59 OT). Creighton covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| SE Louisiana at Texas A&M C.C. (Feb. 6) | Texas A&M C.C. -5 | Texas A&M C.C. -3.23 | Texas A&M C.C. -3.5 | SE Louisiana wins (64-58) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| So. Ill at Missouri St. (Feb. 6) | Missouri St. -3 | Missouri St. -1.09 | Missouri St. -4.5 | Missouri St. (65-59) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| SFA at Houston Bapt.(Feb. 6) | Houston Bapt. -3 | SFA -0.94 | Houston Bapt. -1.5 | SFA wins (79-77) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Georgia at Alabama (Feb. 6) | Alabama -9 | Alabama -7.22 | Alabama -8.0 | Alabama wins (89-74) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Wisconsin at Minnesota (Feb. 6) | Wisconsin -4 | Wisconsin -3.64 | Wisconsin -2.5 | Wisconsin wins (56-51) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Nevada at Colorado St. (Feb. 6) | Nevada -12 | Nevada -14.20 | Nevada -13.0 | Nevada wins (98-82) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Kent St. at Akron (Feb. 8) | Akron -6 | Akron -2.73 | Akron -4.0 | Akron wins (72-53) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Penn at Brown (Feb. 8) | Brown -3 | Brown -0.01 | Brown -1.0 | Penn wins (92-82) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Cornell at Dartmouth (Feb. 8) | Dartmouth -7 | Dartmouth -3.69 | Dartmouth -3.5 | Cornell wins (83-80) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Ga. Southern at UL Monroe (Feb. 8) | UL Monroe -1 | Ga. Southern -0.40 | PK | UL Monroe wins (88-79) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Ga. State at Louisiana (Feb. 8) | Ga. State -3 | Ga. State -1.86 | Louisiana -1.0 | Louisiana wins (76-72) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Columbia at Harvard (Feb. 8) | Harvard -14 | Harvard -13.97 | Harvard -10.5 | Harvard wins (98-96 OT). Columbia covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. The sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Canisius at Rider (Feb. 8) | Rider -8 | Rider -6.60 | Rider -9.0 | Canisius wins (81-80) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| St. Louis at St. Joseph’s (Feb. 8) | St. Louis -3 | St. Louis -0.97 | St. Louis -2.5 | St. Joe’s wins (91-61) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Princeton at Yale (Feb. 8) | Yale -9 | Yale -7.87 | Yale -8.0 | Yale wins (74-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. The sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| 2017-18 Season | |||||
| Matchup | KP Spread | Sag. Spread | Actual Spread | Outcome | Takeaway |
| Bucknell at Lafayette (Jan. 8) | Bucknell -7 | Bucknell -9.5 | Bucknell -11.0 | Bucknell wins (80-75 OT), Lafayette covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was too high on Bucknell. |
| Jackson St. at Southern (Jan. 8) | Southern -6 | Southern -5.12 | Southern -7.0 | Jackson State wins (65-61) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was too high on Jackson State. |
| Baylor at West Virginia (Jan. 9) | W.V. -8 | W.V. -13.4 | W.V. -9.5 | West Virginia wins (57-54); Baylor covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was too high on WV. |
| Texas Tech at Oklahoma (Jan. 9) | T.T. -1 | Okla. -2.2 | Okla. -2.0 | Okla. wins (75-65) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook (slightly); the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Butler at Creighton (Jan. 9) | Creighton -7 | Creighton -6.4 | Creighton -7.0 | Creighton wins (85-74) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Purdue at Michigan (Jan. 9) | Purdue -2 | Purdue -2.4 | Pur -2.0 | Purdue wins (70-69); Michigan covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Ole Miss at Auburn (Jan. 9) | Aub. -12 | Aub. -17.0 | Aub. -10.5 | Auburn wins (85-70) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was too high on Ole Miss. |
| Dayton at Richmond (Jan. 9) | Dayton -1 | Dayton -5.4 | Dayton -2.5 | Dayton wins (87-81) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Kansas at Iowa State (Jan. 9) | Kansas -9 | Kansas -20 | Kansas -16.0 | Kansas wins (83-78); Iowa State covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Syracuse at Virginia (Jan. 9) | Virginia -12 | Virginia -15.75 | Virginia -9.5 | Virginia wins (68-61); Syracuse covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Duke at Pittsburgh (Jan. 10) | Duke -14 | Duke -16.01 | Duke -20.0 | Duke wins (87-52) and covers | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Louisville at Florida State (Jan. 10) | FSU -6 | FSU -9.82 | FSU -6.0 | Louisville wins (73-69) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; KenPom tied with the sportsbook. |
| OK State at Kansas State (Jan. 10) | Kansas State -5 | Kansas State -5.99 | Kansas State -3.0 | Kansas State wins (86-82) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Colorado at USC (Jan. 10) | USC -10 | USC -8.69 | USC -11.0 | USC wins (70-58) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Va. Tech at Wake Forest (Jan. 10) | Wake -1 | Va. Tech -2.43 | Wake -2.0 | Va. Tech wins (83-75) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Duke at Miami (Jan. 15) | Duke -2 | Duke -2.3 | Duke -4.0 | Duke wins (83-75) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Kansas at West Virginia (Jan. 15) | WV -3 | WV -4.6 | WV -5.5 | Kansas wins (71-66) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Illinois at Nebraska (Jan. 15) | Nebraska -5 | Nebraska -7.74 | Nebraska -4.5 | Nebraska wins (64-63); Illinois covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| DePaul at Marquette (Jan. 15) | Marquette -10 | Marquette -14.99 | Marquette -9.5 | Marquette wins (70-52) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Cincinnati at UCF (Jan. 16) | Cincinnati -6 | Cincinnati -6.04 | Cincinnati -7.5 | Cincinnati wins (49-38) and covers. | Sagarin was slightly more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Purdue at Wisconsin (Jan. 16) | Purdue -17 | Purdue -23.04 | Purdue -14.5 | Purdue wins (78-50) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; both metrics were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Clemson at North Carolina (Jan. 16) | UNC -6 | UNC -5.06 | UNC -7.5 | UNC wins (87-79) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Oklahoma at Kansas State (Jan. 16) | Okla. -1 | Okla. -4.73 | Okla. -2.0 | K-State wins (87-69) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Kentucky at South Carolina (Jan. 16) | UK -3 | UK -4.08 | UK -1.5 | So. Car. wins (76-68) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| SMU at Wichita State (Jan. 17) | Wich. St. -7.5 | Wich. St. -13.01 | Wich. St. -8.5 | SMU wins (83-78) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| Auburn at Alabama (Jan. 17) | Auburn -1 | Auburn -4.00 | Auburn -2.0 | Alabama wins (76-71) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook. |
| St. John’s at Xavier (Jan. 17) | Xavier -12 | Xavier -14.73 | Xavier -11.5 | Xavier wins (88-82); St. John’s covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Iowa State at TCU (Jan. 17) | TCU -12 | TCU -13.56 | TCU -10.5 | TCU wins (96-73) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom. Both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Arizona St. at Stanford (Jan. 17) | ASU -5 | ASU -8.20 | ASU -3.5 | Stanford wins (86-77) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Illinois at Wisconsin (Jan. 19) | Wisc. -4 | Wisc. -5.41 | Wisc. -4.5 | Wisc. wins (75-50) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate that KenPom. |
| St. Bonaventure at Davidson (Jan. 19) | Dav. -4 | St. Bon. -1.53 | Dav. -5.0 | Davidson wins (83-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Arizona at Wash. St. (Jan. 31) | Ari. -8 | Ari. -10.50 | Ari. -12.0 | Arizona wins (100-72) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| LSU at Tennessee (Jan. 31) | Tenn. -11 | Tenn.-12.28 | Tenn. -9.5 | Tennessee wins (84-61) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Missouri at Alabama (Jan. 31) | Bama -3 | Bama -3.52 | Bama -5.5 | Missouri wins (69-60) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; both were more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Florida St. at Wake Forest (Jan. 31) | FSU -4 | FSU -7.07 | FSU -4.5 | Wake wins (76-72) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Fairfield at Monmouth (Feb. 2) | Mon. -7 | Mon. -6.78 | Mon. -2.5 | Fairfield wins (79-78) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Canisius at Marist (Feb. 2) | Can. -7 | Can. -9.13 | Can. -8.0 | Canisius wins (73-67); Marist covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Harvard at Columbia (Feb. 2) | Pick’em | Harvard -3.10 | Harvard -1.5 | Columbia wins (83-76) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Illinois Chicago at Oakland (Feb. 2) | Oak. -9 | Oak. -11.27 | Oak. -8.0 | Ill.-Chi. wins (79-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| Indiana at Rutgers (Feb. 5) | Rutgers -1 | Indiana -0.88 | Indiana -3.0 | Indiana wins (65-43) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| West Virginia at Oklahoma (Feb. 5) | Okla. -1 | Okla. -3.49 | Okla. -3.0 | W.V. wins (757-73) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Southern at Jackson St. (Feb. 5) | Jack. St -1 | Jack. St -5.06 | Jack. St -2.0 | Southern wins (67-62) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than Sagarin. |
| Colorado State at Air Force (Feb. 6) | Pick’em | Air Force -0.48 | Air Force -2.5 | Air Force wins (78-73) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than both. |
| So. Car at Arkansas (Feb. 6) | Ark. -6 | Ark. -8.96 | Ark. -7.0 | Ark.wins (81-65) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Missouri St. at Indiana St. (Feb. 6) | Ind. St. -3 | Ind. St. -0.59 | Ind. St. -1.5 | Missouri St. wins (81-62) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than KenPom. |
| Xavier at Butler (Feb. 6) | Butler -3 | Xavier -0.54 | Butler -3.5 | Xavier wins (98-93) and covers. | Sagarin was more accurate than KenPom and the sportsbook; the sportsbook was more accurate than the sportsbook. |
| Tennessee at Kentucky (Feb. 6) | Tenn. -2 | UK -0.47 | UK -1.5 | Tenn. wins (61-59) and covers. | KenPom was more accurate than Sagarin and the sportsbook; Sagarin was more accurate than the sportsbook. |
En las apuestas de baloncesto universitario, utilizar sistemas de predicción como KenPom y Sagarin puede mejorar sus posibilidades de éxito. Si bien no existe una fórmula infalible para ganar todas las apuestas, los datos históricos indican que las predicciones de KenPom suelen ser más precisas que las de Sagarin. Cuando KenPom y Sagarin difieren en los resultados previstos y la diferencia de puntos real se encuentra en el medio, los apostadores pueden encontrar valor al ponerse del lado de la predicción de KenPom. Además, mantenerse informado sobre las noticias sobre lesiones puede brindar más oportunidades para tomar decisiones de apuestas informadas.
Recuerda que apostar siempre conlleva riesgos y es fundamental ejercer prácticas de juego responsable. Al combinar KenPom, Sagarin y las noticias sobre lesiones, puede tomar decisiones más informadas y aumentar sus posibilidades de éxito en las apuestas de baloncesto universitario.