Basketball in college is full of incredible moments. There are highs, lows, shocking upsets, and sloppy brackets on the court. But do you think it works like magic when money is involved? Or is it simply that specific item that can be seen but isn’t quite quantifiable?
Some of the finest betting trends and things to look out for are influenced by the intangible factors that make college basketball such an enjoyable sport. The wonderful thing about intangibles is that you can perform exceptionally well when tuned in to what’s happening.
It’s all about how you play on the margins, great athletes in any sport or sector will tell you, and we wholeheartedly agree. We’ve included some because we believe that paying close attention to some intangibles might make the difference between winning and losing.
These criteria are interesting to discuss with friends or other sports bettors since everyone has a different perspective or weight. Whatever you do, have fun and discover your competitive edge! (Not necessarily in any sequence)
Favorable Home Court
The utter absence of agreement on the value of home-court advantage in college basketball distinguishes it from other sports. We all agree that it is valuable, yet depending on who you ask, the claims of advantage range from 3 to 6 points. The field is enormous in four places. In contrast, the main point of contention about the NFL’s home-field advantage is whether it is worth 3 or 3.5 points.
We’re not here to argue against a specific number in college basketball. Contrarily, we believe that everyone across that broad spectrum is accurate, which is the key.
This advice should be the only thing you remember from this section: disregard the national average.
Experts on the home court advantage concur that home court differs per institution. But they continue to mismeasure it. They merely calculate the national D1 average by taking the data’s mean. The arithmetic is sound, but the figure doesn’t provide a complete enough picture to be relied upon.
A far better place to start would be to locate listings of home court advantages for each school. We don’t believe any model has ever ultimately captured (or will capture) home-court advantage in college basketball perfectly. There are too many playing parts that alter with the seasons.
We believe there is a method to outperform the existing easy math. That’s significant since the macro-level data greatly influence the final opening line. You can consistently generate significant gains if you can outsmart the books with just a bit of additional number crunching.
Make sure you comprehend the following to keep one step ahead of the bookies when it comes to home-court advantage:
Home court advantage is constantly changing
Every year, it varies depending on the school. Every season, schools swap out their coaches and athletes. There are too many playing pieces to reiterate. The 4.5-point edge from last year might grow to 6 points this year and disappear the following year. You can see why utilizing the national average figure, whatever you believe it could be, will be inaccurate more often than not when considering that they are college students.
Numerous factors contribute to the ever-changing home court advantage; thus, describing them would probably be fruitless. The best thing is to observe as much as possible to understand why a particular school’s ranking is what it is.
The benefit of learning about home-court advantage in college basketball betting is that if you develop the practice of tailoring your number, you’ll be one step ahead of many bookies who create their in-house numbers and go. There will be line shopping possibilities everywhere, as well as those lines that are simply asking to be jumped.
EVEN THE ROAD TEAM MATTER
A team may be solid at home, but did they face opponents that struggle on the road? Whatever the solution, it’s preferable to consider all sides of the argument rather than sell out to one.
Late in the season, the home court drops off
The statistics support it: compared to games played in November and December, there is a little drop in home-court advantage in the late season (between a half and a whole point).
The most accessible home court element to describe is undoubtedly this one. Are all those freshmen afraid? Not as frightened anymore. They have experienced all the road conditions and travel over a whole season. Even if they aren’t seasoned, they aren’t as wide-eyed out there as they were early in the season. Another factor is that teams have more established routines now, so that the location won’t impact that much.
Remember that this advice also stresses the need to keep an eye on the visiting team while establishing your home court number.
Our essential advice for betting on rivalry games is the play that depends on the rivalry. When betting on rivalry games, the key is to control your emotions and not overplay a line by following bad betting practices; this may seem a little confusing when you consider that strong emotions are the source of the betting value.
There are always some fantastic rivalry bets available. But the key is knowing which games to dominate and which to avoid. With a few criteria to assist you in locating the ideal targets, you should primarily follow your typical betting strategy for rivalry games.
A HOME COURT IS WHO?
If you’re betting on a rivalry game, ask yourself this first. However, not usually. Rivalry games improve home-court advantages; this raises the issue of whether to award the host side the customary home-court benefit or an additional one or two points because they are playing a competitor. The following suggestion, in our opinion, has the solution.
IS THE RIVALRY HEATED AT ALL?
The rivalries between Duke and North Carolina and Kentucky and Louisville are frequently portrayed as fierce and competitive, yet they fall short of being recognized nationwide. They know who dislikes whom and why is vital to place more trustworthy bets.
That’s not to suggest that these vast games can’t be valuable; it’s just that blueblood teams are sometimes more accustomed to big games and may not become as worked up over a rivalry game as other schools may. Bad blood is an excellent signal if you’re looking for value plays for teams playing at home. The teams benefit naturally from it, but the fan bases may also become more fervent during games, heightening the tension on the home floor.
How can one locate tainted blood? Pay attention to what the players and coaches say about the next game rather than the media people who are paid to hype things up. Be mindful of the risks as well. Is there retaliation at work here? Who won the most recent match, and how eager is the losing team to get revenge?
Is the contest for genuine intrastate bragging rights, or is it only a rivalry created by the reality that both teams are in the same league and have had success? We’ll wager on the home team significantly more frequently if everything stays the same.
Schedules for Value-Added Reading
You understand what we’re driving if you have ever calculated a team’s win-loss record based only on their schedule. Schedules convey a tale as a season progresses; you might use that to forecast the results of upcoming games. Players and coaches are also individuals, and as such, they have tendencies that, if you keep up with the action on the betting boards, you may take advantage. Some of our favorite scheduling patterns to watch for are listed below:
Even though they are on television, these kids are college students playing ball as they travel the nation. Most of the time, programs try to plan cupcakes after a significant competition distant from home, but it doesn’t always result in that way. You might complicate conference play if a club often plays numerous road games in a row or alternates between home games and opponents far away.
The bottom line is that you can be looking at a solid value play, even if it’s only for one game, if you believe a club is a little banged up and they have difficulty scheduling ahead of them.
They frequently take place. On Saturday, a respectable club will host a highly-ranked opponent, which should be a tremendous match. They only need to defeat an underdog in the away game on Wednesday night, and everything will go according to plan.
Here we are at the venerable trap game
You’ll need to have a good nose to find these activities. An upcoming big game and an away game against a hungry opponent doesn’t guarantee a team will lose or fail to cover. The value is there if you scent a trap game and catch the book napping on the opening line, but you need to thoroughly understand the health of the teams you are betting on beforehand.
Letdown & Rebound Games
Teams coming from a tremendous win or devastating defeat might be another excellent value option. A sizable home overtime victory against a rated foe is fantastic for unranked underdogs! It may be emotionally taxing as well. How about the following game two days from now? You might get excellent value betting the letdown if the computer models or bookies overvalue a team after a huge victory.
This is especially relevant for teams recovering from disappointing losses (or adversity in general). These wagers are best saved for teams with reputable coaches who are known for their ability to inspire their players. You might want to glance at a club if you believe they have what it takes to recover from a lousy defeat or are desperate to salvage their season, especially if the oddsmakers aren’t treating them favorably.
The ATS Stats are Missing Gold
ATS stands for “Against the Spread.”
There is nothing wrong with a team experiencing a few lucky breaks or having a successful streak. However, a team’s record of 12-2-1 or 3-11 ATS in the middle of a season indicates that the oddsmakers cannot predict that team’s performance. The race is on in this situation. To punish them the next time they make the same error, check replays to see what they are missing.
Even better, look for systemic issues using the ATS statistics. You can discover that several unbalanced ATS figures originate from a single tiny conference. Nothing is more wonderful than learning early on that the sportsbook cannot locate a reliable line for NEC or Big West games.
It is possible to list them all, but there are many excellent things to consider while placing your college basketball wagers. We sincerely hope that our tutorial was at least helpful in getting you started, and we’re pulling for you to discover that unique college-game trick that outperforms the text and boosts your bankroll.
No matter what occurs, don’t forget to enjoy yourself and the exciting action! Bet now on College Basketball with these strategies.