Mastering of Over/Under in Soccer Betting
When looking at Total (over/under) betting in Soccer, many players avoid this market for some reasons. But becoming a master in this type of betting is not as difficult as it might seem.
Many are put off by the meager totals posted by punters on football betting sites, but football totals and betting on football totals are just like any other market in sports betting. The more you get involved, the more you learn and improve.
Betting on Soccer Over/Under is a bit of a hunt, and patience is a virtue. And there is always some pressure (no betting for a draw) to bet on football totals.
But in football, we see far fewer actual game totals across all major leagues. We usually see the main numbers 2, 2½, 3, and 3½. Betting on football Over/Under is an art, but it takes some time to master.
Let’s start by showing the Over/Under, an example of the upcoming FIFA World Cup of 2022, which kicks off in Qatar on Sunday, November 20. It will mark the first time the World Cup willl is in the world of Arabs.
England will face Iran in their Group B opener in their second match on Monday, November 21, at the Khalifa International Stadium (16:00) in Al Rayyan. As you can see, the oddsmakers at BetOnline set the total number of goals at 2½, so there will be no tie.
| CLUB | SPREAD | OVER/UNDER | MONEYLINE |
| Iran | +1½ (-123) | Over 2½ (+106) | +1200 |
| England | -1½ (+103) | Under 2½ (-126) | -330 |
If the football bettor believes there will be two or fewer goals, this Over/Under number provides the bettor the opportunity to bet below 2½ Total. Alternatively, they can support Over 2½ if they think the match will have three or more goals in the 2022 FIFA World Cup example.
In this case, the two juice amounts (active) you see with Over (+106) and Under (-126) reflect the bettors who gave (-) or got (+) at the time of the bet Rate line amount.
For example, if a bettor thinks this England vs. Iran match will be a low score of 0, 1, or 2 goals, they can bet $126 (-$126) on Under to try and win $100. A gambler betting here and looking for three or more goals can bet $100 and get a $106 (+106) bonus.
Over/Under Bets Mastering
Betting on Soccer Totals is like watching paint dry. Many games have little or no score, but remember there is live, in-game betting in Soccer. If you see something and feel like you have an edge, join in and place a live bet.
One of the benefits of betting on totals independently across all sports is that you are not tied up to one side, only the tempo and the actual score of the game or game. Timing is a constant worry for the Totals, and it doesn’t matter unless you bet on baseball.
When betting or handicapping football totals, remember that scores are not as frequent as you think, and not all goals shown in the final score must be counted and reflected in your bet.
Why?
Soccer betting usually scored after 90 minutes of play with added injury time. Any game that goes to overtime and penalties and ends 2-1 but is 1-1 before OT or PK will score as 1-1 points and 2 (total) goals, not 2-1 finals. The vast majority of sportsbooks do not count overtime goals in football. Baseball overtime and overtime points scored in the NFL, NBA, WNBA, and NCAAB include in most sportsbooks’ totals.
You should know many things when betting on handicaps and football Over/Under. Here are some essential things to remember when betting on total points in a football match.
1. Last five games, Examine some trends between clubs
One smart thing to do if you’re betting severe money on football is to look at the history of the series between these two clubs. For example, let’s look at the Leeds-Liverpool EPL match that will take place this Saturday, October 29.
Oddsmakers at BetOnline have a total of 3½u -113 for the EPL match with Liverpool, who are huge -290 favorites in the 3-way market, with Leeds United priced at +750 and the draw priced at +475 for this Liverpool fixture.
Looking at the last 5 in the series, we see a total of goals scored, an average of 4.4 gpg, and a seemingly distinct trend with a small sample size. However, in reality, only 3 out of 5 exceeded four targets, so the next step would be to split by site.
The venue is Anfield in Liverpool, England and the last 5 Liverpool-Leeds United home results for The Reds were (Liverpool win) 6-0, 4-3, 4-1, 3-1, 3-1, and 1. -1. That’s an average of 6.4 gpg. The Total set at 3½, the Trends of the series are heading to an end, with At least four goals in their last five meetings. But we have to look at the form of both clubs in the previous five for some relevance.
In the last five games of Wednesday’s UEFA Champions League match against Ajax, Liverpool has played three straight 1-0 games in the EPL, an 8-goal run in the UEFA CL (LIV 7 RAN 1), and a 5-goal run. The match with Arsenal beat Liverpool 3:2.
In the last five matches, Leeds United have scored 5, 2, 1, 3, and 0 goals, while Leeds have lost 4 in a row. And they’ve only scored three goals in their last five games, so you can see why the tally is 3½.
The trends here favor Mo Salah and Liverpool winning by two or more goals, with Leeds United unlikely to score and LFC winning 2-0, 3-0, or 4-0. Two of those final scores resulted in fewer.
2. Know the starting goalkeepers from the primary XI
Knowing who is injured and out, looking at the starting XI on social media (Twitter, Instagram), and knowing who the starting goalkeeper is is huge in football. In most clubs, GK no. 1 and no. 2 have huge differences.
Managers need to rest during a big game or if they are worn out or recovering from injury. And researching and figuring out who will start before a match and adjusting your mindset is vast, just like in the NHL.
For example, in the Liverpool (4-4-3) vs. Leeds (2-3-6) GK Reds no. 1, Allison started all 11 EPL matches. And Iilan Meslier has started all 11 EPL games for Leeds United, so the handicap would suggest the 6-6 French keeper will be in goal for the visitors in this competition.
3. Check the weather at the stadium
The weather is easy to find, but when you Google or use your preferred source, you use the exact location of the stadium and not just the city. The weather in North London can be a little different in West London.
If you want to find the weather for the Liverpool-Leeds match, simply Google “Weather, Anfield, Liverpool, Saturday,” In this case, you can see that in Forecast.
Knowing the playing surface is also essential when handicapping soccer totals, as the ball tends to move faster and skip more on synthetic surfaces than on natural grass. The ball moves slower when the grass gets wet and stuck, and goals are harder to score.
4. Match situation observation
Some games are more important to some teams than others. A great example is playing in the UEFA Champions League group stage when the team has already clinched a place in the knockout stages.
In places like these or other quick turnarounds, managers rest key players and use No. 1 goalkeepers. 2 to have their freshest starting XI for the bigger game. This phenomenon is less visible in regular season leagues in European football, but it does happen.
Not all matches are equal. It’s only natural that Liverpool will favor a more potent team like Manchester City, Chelsea, or Arsenal, as opposed to Leeds United, Brighton & Hove Albion, or 20th-place Nottingham Forest.
5. Look for the best betting number
Aggregate football betting might seem dry compared to Sides, but there are things you can do to get a little edge here and there. Live bets (Totals) are one; when betting on football over/under, it is essential to have multiple Bets and buy the best bet number.
You may find a discrepancy where one bookmaker has 2 for a game & another has 2½. If you like the Under, bet where 2½ is posted, knowing that a Push is possible if you want the Over. Bet your money on the online bookie with the 2.
One nice thing about soccer totals – which usually only happens when the Total is 3 – is the potential moves for matches that can end 3-0 or 2-1. Not losing is better than losing, and when you’re betting on a football Total set to 3, you know what you’re getting into.
Consider all factors before placing your total bet.
Soccer over/under seems like a neglected betting market, but it’s essentially the same feel, handicap, and betting approach as MLB, NHL and MMA Totals. In that, we are dealing with potentially low results.
And no other sport has such a strange 0-0 final score as football. Bettors should pay twice for a 0-0 score in football. With football totals so predictable, a lot of handicaps for a match can be done ahead of time because you already theoretically know the starting GK and what the Over/Under will be. The Match between Liverpool and Leeds United at Anfield a year from now is likely to be 3½.
A predicted final score before the odds come out is a great way to get closer to your football betting totals. Knowing that Allison and Liverpool need a win after losing at Nottingham Forest, the weather will be rainy, and the Reds have struggled to score, so they have gone for the Under.