Favorite pick:
Milwaukee Bucks (+800)
It feels like the Deer are sleeping amid the preseason odds shuffle and media distraction. As if there wasn’t enough fear. We know the past two years have been a bit hectic around the globe, and it’s easy to blur the reality, but it’s worth reminding you that the Bucks won the 2021 championship and took the 2022 East title without Khris Middleton. It’s game 7.
They’ve hired what’s probably most considered the best player in basketball (Giannis Antetokounmpo), who has a consistent tendency to play monsters in big moments and, at 27, is theoretically just entering his prime.
The Bucks would benefit significantly from continuity, especially stability after injuries plagued their lineup last season (remember, Brook Lopez, played five minutes into the playoffs).
It is arguably the most dangerous two-way team in the NBA at its peak. At this price, Milwaukee is the most attractive option near the top of a highly narrow odds board.
Underdog pick:
Denver Nuggets (+1,800)
The last time the Nuggets went all out, they were one of the best teams in the NBA. It is a small sample, but with Aaron Gordon playing Nikola Jokic in the space created by Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. while filling the defensive void left by Jerami Grant, Denver Looks very close to completing. Murray tore his ACL a few weeks later, and Porter suffered a back injury last season, but if they both stay healthy through the playoffs, this could be a contender.
Jokic has kept the team on track for one of the best statistical seasons ever, and they’ll get upside through sophomore Bones Hyland gets a sneaky good signing in Bruce Brown and return two full-time players. Star player.
There are risks here, especially in Porter’s case, but in an open title fight, there’s value in backing Denver for the same price as the damn Lakers.
Fade out:
Los Angeles Lakers (+1,800)
Last season was ugly and unfortunate, but not far off the median projection for this team. LeBron James’ staying power (now in its 20th year) has seriously declined in Los Angeles, averaging just 55.75 games per season with the Lakers. Anthony Davis is still arguably the most vulnerable star in the NBA. And Russell Westbrook’s coexistence is one of constant uncertainty.
This list doesn’t look much better on paper than last year’s iteration and has to compete in the Deeper West. Especially considering health, I think they’re serious dogs to win one playoff series, let alone four. Add in a rookie head coach, and you’d have to give me a longer chance to consider reaching out to the Lakers.