Please read our article on Teaser betting strategies first, and then read the Sweetheart teaser before continuing. Assuming you are familiar with the concepts covered in these articles, the next area of interest you may be interested in is betting for Pleaser, which we cover in this article. However, while essential for experienced sports bettors, the concepts here may need to be revised for casual bettors. If you need help finding yourself, check out the material in our preview section, place a profitable bet, and return to this article later.
Now that the introduction is out of the way, We will go into pleaser betting, including how to determine if pleaser betting is worthwhile. Still, start with introductory material such as “What is pleaser betting.”
Pleaser Betting Explanation
In simple terms: the pleaser bet is the exact opposite of the teaser bet. For example, in a 6-point pass bet on two teams, with a baseline of Jets +1.5 and Colts -8.5, you would end up with a combined Jets +7.5 / Colts -2.5 of -110 ($1.10 risk win $1.00). Conversely, if you were to bet these teams as the six-point winners of both teams, you would end up with a combined Jets -4.5 / Colts -14.5 at +600 (risking $1.00 to win $6.00, which is 6 to 1). The pleasers pay much more than the teasers because the point spread is against you, not against you. In Pleasers and Winners bets, each team must cover their modified point spread for a Teaser or Pleaser Bet to win; any other outcome (1-1, 0-2, etc.) is considered a loser.
Where to bet on Pleasers
Today, only some online bookmakers offer Pleaser betting. You will find 90 different sets of enjoyable betting options at other sites. For NFL football, they offer 2-6 teams good teams in scores of 6, 6.5, 7, 7.5, 8, 8.5, 9, 9.5, and 10, each with a “tie to win” or “tie to reduce” Option. That’s nine-point options multiplied by 5 of the 45 team option numbers, Multiplied by the Option to deal with the tie, giving us 90 different sets of Pleaser odds. Even more confusing, but with the same odds, they offer other corresponding point spreads for each league. Here is an example of the score given in Pleaser when the NFL is 6 points:
- 6 NFL Teams
- 7 points for both NCAAFB and CFL
- 8 points; all other football teams
- 6 NFL totals
- Seven overall for NCAAFB and CFL
- 8 points for all other football totals
- 5.5 points NBA team
- 6 points for all other basketball teams
- 7 points total for all basketball
With so many options for pleasers, the topic needs to be smaller to cover in one article. Since this is a small market, the best way to attack the likable betting theme was to show you the methods we, or any other mind/math-based sports bettor, use to analyze agreeable bet values.
For simplicity, let’s look at a 2-team 6-point draw reduction pleasing, offering +600. We first asked, “When betting +600, how often do we need to win on average to break even?”
As a reminder from the previous article, the math is risk divided by reward, where reward equals risk plus profit. So, for example, at +600, a $100 bet would return $700 (our $100 risk plus $600 profit). The math is 100/700=0.1428571428571429, or 14.29%. It means we need both legs to win 14.29% of the time to break even. To determine how often we need each leg to win, we need to know what number multiplied by itself equals 0.1429, so we’re looking for the square root. The square root of 0.1429 is 0.378. To test whether this is correct, take 0.378 x 0.378 and see if it equals 0.1429. So this tells us that to achieve the required breakeven rate of 14.29%, we need each leg to win 37.8% of the time.
The same math works for other teams as well. If we do a three-team pleaser at +1750, we will calculate the breakeven as 100/1850=0.541. Since there are three teams, we would take the cube root (third root) of 0.541 to get 0.3782. Here we’ll explain that to win at +1750, and we need to win 54.1% of the time, and to achieve this 54.1% breakeven rate, our three teams have to win an average of 37.82% of the time.
Now, lest we get too stressed with the math, google “Moneyline Converter” and plug in the percentage to convert it to the American odds format. After doing this, I see that 37.82% is the same as the American odds of +164.4. So we have in the +1750 three-team pleaser a three-team streak priced at +164.4 per team. The bookmaker allows us to sell six pips in exchange for our odds of +164.4.
Doing the math for all 90 options 5Dimes offers is time-consuming, but knowing how to do the math we’ve shown above is helpful. To continue comparing 5Dimes. EU’s odds, we’ve calculated each of their NFL six-point options. The data is as follows.
6-POINT PLEASER (NFL) BREAKDOWN
Two teams tied to win: +550 (15.38%) | each leg: 39.22% breakeven (+155)
2 Team Relationship Reduction: +600 (14.28%) | Each Leg: 37.79% Break Even (+164.6)
Three teams tie to win: +1550 (6.06%) | Each leg: 39.28% Rest events (+154.6)
3 Team Relations Reduction: +1750 (5.41%) | Each Leg: 37.82% Rest Events (+164.4)
Four teams tie to win: +4100 (2.39%) | Each leg: 39.32% Rest events (+154.6)
4 Team Relations Reduction: +4800 (2.04) | Each Leg: 37.80% Rest Events (+164.5)
Five teams tie to win: +10500 (0.94%) | each leg: 39.32% break events (+154.3)
5 Team Relations Reduction: +13000 (0.76%) | Each Leg: 37.68% Rest Events (+165.4)
Six teams tie to win: +27000 (0.37%) | Each leg: 39.33% Rest events (+154.3)
6 Team Relations Reduction: +35000 (0.285%) | Each Leg: 37.65% Rest Events (+165.6)
After breaking down each of 5Dimes’ six-point NFL-pleasing options, what I’m sure of is that the odds don’t improve as the number of teams increases. 5Dimes use the same odds for 2-team, 3-team, 4-team, 5-team, and 6-team pleasers, the difference being the percentage points used to smooth the numbers and make them more suitable for casual bettors. For this reason, as professionals, we would never bet on pleasers outside of a 2-team format. If we find more than two values weekly, we cycle through them. For example, if we are bullish on teams a, b and c, we would place three bets on A+B, B+C, and A+C, respectively.
With the odds calculated, our next step is to try and find a Profitable subset. Let’s say we like Bills +13.5, then we do price shopping and find that the best price for Bills +13.5 is -105. When we bet Bills directly at -105, our breakeven percentage is 105/205 = 51.22%. To see if betting on the Bills in a two-team draw makes more sense than betting straight, we compared the 37.79% breakeven percentage for a 2-team six-point Draw to the 51.22% required for a straight bet. The difference is 13.43%. Our question now is: Does going from +13.5 to +7.5 reduce our winning Probability by less than 13.43%, and if it does, then using Bills as the likable side has higher expectations than betting straight?
It is where things get complicated. To calculate further, we need to find how often teams around +13.5 advance at 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13 and add them up. Doing so will require NFL data, which the keenest bettors have compiled.
We will continue using its database instead of data for analysis. After copying & pasting their data into an Excel spreadsheet, we found that since 1983, there have been 642 spreads between 10.5 and 16.5 pips. Here’s how often each of the relevant win rates occurs based on this data: 13 points 2.2%, 12 points 1.0%, 11 points 2.4%, 10 points 3.6%, 9 points 1.9%, and 8 points 1.5%. When I add it all together, the percentage is 12.6%.
We have just established that if historical outcomes are predictive of future Outcomes, the expected value of +13.5 to please the underdog is higher than -105 for betting the underdog +13.5 outright. It is because our required breakeven percentage is reduced by 13.43% when we gamble, and moving the spread by these six pips only reduces our Probability of winning by 12.6%. If the Probability of winning drops by more than 13.43%, the straight Bet will have a higher expected value.
Now, finally, We’re throwing you a softball here because there are far more fools to please than to please a subset of wagers. Remember that the NFL’s most common order of winning percentages is 3, 7, 10, 6, 14, 4, 1, 17, 13, and 2, with heavily imbalanced distributions for the first two (3-7) very common. When looking at a board for +EV-pleasing bets, We first look for Bets that cross those early numbers as little as possible.
Pleaser bets can be very profitable but have high variation and are time-consuming. Let’s call it easy to live the hard way, but it gets easier once you know how to do this math and practice. Profitable sports betting is all about growing your bankroll a little at a time while ultimately protecting it.