NFL Sports Betting Strategy

January 5, 2023

Making money at sports betting can be difficult, but many sports bettors consistently win. Some, even many professional bettors, make a living from sports betting. Like a pro, you need a winning sports betting strategy to achieve consistent success.

Several basic sports betting strategies are suitable for beginners. Of course, experienced bettors may prefer to use more advanced sports betting techniques.

The Basics of NFL Sports Betting Strategies

Some basic strategies and tips help you make money from sports betting. None of these sports betting strategies are a secret, but following them will help you win money at sports betting.

Bettors who do not follow any of these strategies refer to them as “squares.” These are the types of bettors that the sportsbook will profit from.

  • Money Management/Bankroll Management

When betting on sports, you should always set aside a certain amount of money to gamble. This money, which we refer to as your “bankroll,” is disposable income you can afford to lose. As with any gambling, you don’t want to bet on sports with money you can’t afford to lose.

Set aside a specific amount of money you can use for the week for your bankroll, month, or season. A general sports betting tip on bankroll management is only to bet 1 percent to 5 percent of your bankroll.

For example, if your bankroll/fund for the NFL season is $1,000, you would make a $10-$50 bet on each NFL game you want to bet on. It would be best if you also refrained from chasing your losses with bigger bets.

It is ordinary for some sports bettors to lose money and increase their bet size to try to recoup their losses. It is the wrong mindset and will often lead to losing more money. Work on the size of your bankroll and look to increase it throughout the season slowly.

  • Bet Wisely and Don’t Be Slanted

While betting while sober seems like common sense, you’d be surprised how many people bet on sports while under the influence. Is it a coincidence that Las Vegas casinos offer complimentary alcoholic beverages while you gamble? I did not expect it.

I don’t want to sound like your mother here, but betting while under the influence can impair your judgment. It should avoid if you want to be a winning sports bettor.

The second part of this tip is “don’t go on tilt.”

Tilt or “tilting” is a commonly used term among poker players. It refers to players who let their emotions take over, often leading to bad decisions.

If you hate something, like some bad beats, you shouldn’t bet. Take a break, walk around, and clear your mind before you start doing more sports betting choices.

  • Do your Homework

It is the most important strategy in sports betting. You always want to do your research before placing your bets. Going with your gut may work, but it will lead to something other than consistent wins.

You must research and do your homework for each selection to make money from sports betting. Look at statistics, find trends, create sports betting systems, and review past games. Do everything possible to ensure value in your selection before placing your bet.

Many bettors find it helpful to read our free sports picks. Others prefer to rely on computer picks for their betting advice. Fortunately, we here at The Sports Geek offer both.

  • Line Shopping

A huge step to becoming a winning sports bettor is to make sure you shop for the best lines. It means that you need to have an account with many online sportsbooks. Before betting, check out the different sportsbooks and find which book offers the best line for you. It lets you see the highest value when betting.

For example, let’s say you’re looking to bet on the New England Patriots at a 7-point spread. You’ll want to check multiple sportsbooks to see if they offer the Patriots at 6.5 points. At least, if you’re going to find the best price, you can get them at 7 points.

Through sports betting, you can win yourself a lot of money from shopping the lines. Shopping online is one of the best sports betting strategies used by winning sports bettors. To see a list of sportsbooks, we recommend signing up to visit our online betting sites section.

  • Avoid Buying Points

Avoid “square” habits such as buying favorites down or underdogs up. For example, some bettors always need to buy an NFL favorite of -3.5 to -2.5. Sportsbooks are smart enough to charge more juice to do this, mathematically making it a bad strategy.

The same goes for buying an NFL underdog from +2.5 to +3.5, for example. In 99% of cases, I recommend against it. Check out this video I made below about buying points on NFL underdogs.

Other Sports Betting Strategies and Myths

Above are the four basic strategies you want to follow to be a winning sports bettor. There are other tips you can use to help you win money as well.

For one, follow a sports handicapper who uses a proven sports betting system. Beware of scammers out there, though. You’ll pass if they don’t show their records of long-term success.

An old sports betting strategy is to bet on the home underdogs. The theory is that teams are usually more inspired to play at home. They tend not to fold if they are downhill like they do on the road.

Betting on house dogs in the past might have made your money, but this is no longer the case. You can read the current betting market article to find out why.

Another great sports betting tip is to place your bets at the right time. With the lines moving from when they are posted to when the game starts, you will want to enter your bet when you get the best price.

Predicting line movements is very difficult, but it is worth looking into. Watch the video below that I made titled “When To Place Your Bets.”

Betting Trends

One of the great sports betting strategies you can learn is to follow betting trends. The betting trend shows you how other bettors struggle in a betting market. Sportsbooks will adjust the odds for a particular bet based on its directions.

Understanding betting trends will help you know when to place your bet. If the sportsbook is about to move a line, this may be the last chance to lock in any value. On the other hand, it may be better to wait to secure the most ideal.

Betting Using Stats Models

There is a plethora of information about any given sporting event. The statistical model will take all the relevant information and predict you. These systems can be very complex, but they are easy to use.

Statistical models are not a perfect science. It’s hard to account for variables like injuries, coaching decisions, and human error. Despite these flaws, many bettors find success with this sports betting strategy.

Betting With/Or Against the Public

You may have heard of “fading” a player or team. This term means that you are betting against what the majority of the public thinks will happen. So, if a ton of money is pouring into a particular team, you can fade them by betting on their opponent.

Betting against the public can also be viewed as betting on the underdog. If you are betting on the favorite, you are technically betting on the people. Betting on an underdog can lead to big wins, but the favorite is the favorite for a reason.

Advanced Sports Betting Strategy Articles

Here are some additional resources to help you on your journey to becoming a sports betting expert.


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