March Madness Upsets: How to Spot Them with These Integral Trends

BY markoh August 18, 2023

When it comes to March Madness, witnessing favored teams fall can be even more exhilarating with stakes on the underdog. Given historical outcomes, we delve into shared characteristics among NCAA Tournament upsets, offering insights that could enhance your betting strategies. 

As the echoes of UMBC’s monumental victory over Virginia still resonate, let’s explore trends that could provide a competitive edge in the chaos of college basketball’s grand spectacle.

Top-Five Seeds Overshadow Mid-Majors

Over the past six years, an unsettling pattern has emerged, highlighting the vulnerability of mid-major teams that secure top-five seeds. The spotlight shines on non-Gonzaga mid-majors that have faltered under the pressure of high expectations. 

A remarkable 12 out of 15 such teams suffered opening-round losses, with another six falling in the subsequent round. These upsets, often accompanied by ATS losses, underscore the unpredictability of the tournament and the potential value of betting against heavily favored mid-majors.

 

 
Year Mid-Major Seed Result Score Spread
2021 #2 Houston Lost 78-59 +5.0  
2019 #3 Houston Lost 62-58 +2.0  
2018 #2 Cincinnati Lost 75-73 -4.5  
2018 #4 Wichita State Lost 81-75 -13.0  
2015 #5 Northern Iowa Lost 66-53 +2.0  
2014 #5 VCU Lost 77-75 OT -5.5  
2014 #5 Cincinnati Lost 61-57 -3.5  
2014 #4 San Diego State Lost 70-64 +6.5  
2014 #5 St. Louis Lost 66-51 +9.0  
2013 #5 VCU Lost 78-53 +3.0  
2013 #5 UNLV Lost 64-61 -3.0  
2013 #4 St. Louis Lost 74-57 -3.5  
2012 #5 Temple Lost 58-44 -2.0  
2012 #5 Wichita State Lost 62-59 -8.5  
2012 #5 New Mexico Lost 59-56 +1.5  

Seven-Year Pattern Emerges: Alert for #11 Seeds

The NCAA Tournament has traditionally rewarded higher-seeded teams with safer passage through the early rounds. However, a compelling seven-year trend has emerged, where #11 seeds have defied historical norms and achieved remarkable success. With a notable win rate surpassing #12 seeds, #11 seeds have significantly impacted. 

Their exceptional performance over the last seven years, including multiple advancements to the Round of 32 and a consistent win rate of 60%, challenges conventional wisdom and beckons bettors to consider their upset potential.

 

Year Team Opponent Result
2021 #11 UCLA #6 BYU Win
2021 #11 Syracuse #6 San Diego State Win
2019 #11 Ohio State #6 Iowa State Win
2018 #11 Loyola-Chicago #6 Miami Win
2018 #11 Syracuse #6 TCU Win
2017 #11 Xavier #6 Maryland Win
2017 #11 Rhode Island #6 Creighton Win
2017 #11 USC #6 SMU Win
2016 #11 Wichita State #6 Arizona Win
2016 #11 Northern Iowa #6 Texas Win
2016 #11 Gonzaga #6 Seton Hall Win
2015 #11 UCLA #6 SMU Win
2015 #11 Dayton #6 Providence Win
2014 #11 Tennessee #6 UMass Win
2014 #11 Dayton #6 Ohio State Win

 

Favor KenPom.com Rankings Over Selection Committee Picks for Betting

In strategic betting, disparities between the Selection Committee’s seedings and analytics-driven rankings provide a unique opportunity. Examining the performance of teams ranked within KenPom.com’s top-35 that received #11 seeds or worse reveals a compelling trend. These teams have demonstrated a commendable 22-15 straight-up record (including First Four play-in games) and an 18-15 record excluding the First Four. 

The alignment of KenPom.com rankings with on-court outcomes offers a statistical advantage, empowering bettors to make informed decisions when considering potential upsets.

 

Year

Team

Seed

KP Rank

Result

2019

Saint Mary’s

#11

31st

First Round (0-1)

2018

Loyola-Chicago

#11

31st

Final Four (4-1)

2017

Rhode Island

#11

34th

Second Round (1-1)

2017

Xavier

#11

31st

Elite 8 (3-1)

2017

Kansas St.

#11

30th

First Round (1-1 incl. First Four)

2016

Gonzaga

#11

21st

Sweet 16 (2-1)

2016

Wichita State

#11

13th

Second Round (2-1 incl. First Four)

2016

Vanderbilt

#11

25th

First Four (0-1)

Identifying Vulnerable #1 and #2 Seeds for Upsets

Betting on the fall of a #1 or #2 seed can yield substantial returns, but it requires a discerning approach. Although such upsets are relatively rare, analyzing historical data reveals intriguing insights. Among the key findings, teams that exhibit weaknesses in either offensive or defensive efficiency, as well as those that favor a slow tempo, are more susceptible to early-round upsets. 

By identifying teams with these characteristics, bettors can strategically assess matchups and the potential for unexpected outcomes. 

 

Year Team KP Off. Rank KP Def. Rank KP Tempo Rank
2021 #2 Ohio State 4th 82nd 251st
2018 #1 Virginia 30th 1st 351st
2016 #2 Michigan State 2nd 26th 254th
2013 #2 Georgetown 80th 4th 300th
2012 #2 Duke 8th 79th 108th
2012 #2 Missouri 1st 111th 152nd

While betting on #1 and #2 seeds to lose in the first round is rare, certain traits signal vulnerability. Teams with notable offensive or defensive efficiency weaknesses, particularly those that play at a slower tempo, have been more prone to upsets. 

This strategic insight can guide decisions when evaluating high-seeded matchups.

With these trends and data in mind, you’re better equipped to navigate the excitement of March Madness. Calculated bets make for a winning strategy, and responsible gambling is paramount. As you explore our comprehensive strategy section, embrace the unpredictability of the NCAA Tournament and make informed choices that elevate your betting experience.

betting & odds

83 thoughts on “March Madness Upsets: How to Spot Them with These Integral Trends”

  • Mavis Hreha

    Sweet blog! I found it while searching on Yahoo News. Do you have any tips on how to get listed in Yahoo News? I’ve been trying for a while but I never seem to get there! Appreciate it

  • gullybet

    Everyone loves what you guys are usually up too. Such clever work and reporting! Keep up the very good works guys I’ve incorporated you guys to blogroll.

  • aplikasi neo party

    Greetings from California! I’m bored to death at work so I decided to check out your website on my iphone during lunch break. I really like the information you present here and can’t wait to take a look when I get home. I’m amazed at how quick your blog loaded on my phone .. I’m not even using WIFI, just 3G .. Anyways, superb site!

  • Gully Bet India

    Hello There. I discovered your blog the use of msn. This is an extremely smartly written article. I’ll make sure to bookmark it and come back to learn extra of your helpful info. Thank you for the post. I’ll certainly return.

  • Canadian Football League Stream

    With havin so much content do you ever run into any problems of plagorism or copyright violation? My website has a lot of completely unique content I’ve either created myself or outsourced but it looks like a lot of it is popping it up all over the web without my agreement. Do you know any methods to help prevent content from being stolen? I’d truly appreciate it.

  • daftar idagent138

    I happen to be writing to let you know of the useful experience my cousin’s girl gained using your site. She figured out lots of things, including what it is like to possess a marvelous giving mood to let the rest with ease know a variety of hard to do subject matter. You actually did more than readers’ expected results. I appreciate you for delivering these practical, trustworthy, explanatory and easy tips on the topic to Ethel.

  • demo agent188 slot maxwin

    Its like you read my mind! You appear to know so much about this, like you wrote the book in it or something. I think that you could do with some pics to drive the message home a little bit, but instead of that, this is wonderful blog. A fantastic read. I’ll definitely be back.

  • daftar betplay138

    Nice post. I learn something more challenging on different blogs everyday. It will always be stimulating to read content from other writers and practice a little something from their store. I’d prefer to use some with the content on my blog whether you don’t mind. Natually I’ll give you a link on your web blog. Thanks for sharing.

  • situs summer138 slot online

    Nice read, I just passed this onto a friend who was doing a little research on that. And he actually bought me lunch as I found it for him smile Therefore let me rephrase that: Thanks for lunch! “Love is made in heaven and consummated on earth.” by John Lyly.

  • moto128 slot gacor

    That is the suitable blog for anybody who wants to seek out out about this topic. You notice a lot its nearly hard to argue with you (not that I really would need…HaHa). You definitely put a brand new spin on a topic thats been written about for years. Great stuff, simply nice!

  • kantor bola

    Daftar dan login ke Kantorbola versi terbaru untuk pengalaman bermain bola online terbaik. Ikuti panduan lengkap kami untuk akses mudah, fitur unggulan, dan keamanan terjamin.

  • Gullybet App

    I have to show my thanks to you just for bailing me out of this circumstance. After looking out through the world wide web and coming across techniques which were not productive, I was thinking my life was gone. Existing devoid of the approaches to the problems you have resolved all through your entire report is a crucial case, as well as those which might have in a wrong way damaged my entire career if I hadn’t noticed your blog. Your primary knowledge and kindness in touching every part was excellent. I’m not sure what I would’ve done if I hadn’t encountered such a step like this. I can also now look ahead to my future. Thanks so much for this impressive and results-oriented guide. I will not be reluctant to recommend your web sites to anyone who will need direction about this situation.

  • bonus casino sans wager

    I really wanted to compose a simple note in order to express gratitude to you for some of the magnificent tricks you are sharing at this website. My rather long internet research has finally been recognized with excellent points to talk about with my friends and classmates. I would admit that most of us visitors actually are definitely endowed to dwell in a fabulous place with very many outstanding individuals with insightful ideas. I feel truly fortunate to have seen your weblog and look forward to really more exciting minutes reading here. Thanks a lot once again for a lot of things.

  • بت ۳۰۳۰

    Perfectly composed subject matter, thank you for information. “The last time I saw him he was walking down Lover’s Lane holding his own hand.” by Fred Allen.

  • Aqua sculpt reviews

    Having read this I thought it was very informative. I appreciate you taking the time and effort to put this article together. I once again find myself spending way to much time both reading and commenting. But so what, it was still worth it!

  • Aqua sculpt

    When I originally commented I clicked the -Notify me when new comments are added- checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get four emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Thanks!

  • Moving averages

    Hi, Neat post. There is a problem with your site in internet explorer, would check this… IE still is the market leader and a large portion of people will miss your magnificent writing due to this problem.

  • hoki 88

    I do agree with all the ideas you’ve presented in your post. They’re really convincing and will definitely work. Still, the posts are too short for beginners. Could you please extend them a little from next time? Thanks for the post.

  • Mitolyn reviews

    I absolutely love your blog and find most of your post’s to be just what I’m looking for. Does one offer guest writers to write content available for you? I wouldn’t mind creating a post or elaborating on a number of the subjects you write regarding here. Again, awesome blog!

  • hokijoss

    Wow! This blog looks just like my old one! It’s on a completely different topic but it has pretty much the same layout and design. Superb choice of colors!

  • slot777 gacor

    I?¦ve been exploring for a little for any high quality articles or blog posts in this kind of space . Exploring in Yahoo I eventually stumbled upon this site. Studying this info So i am satisfied to express that I’ve a very just right uncanny feeling I came upon exactly what I needed. I so much undoubtedly will make certain to don?¦t omit this web site and provides it a look regularly.

  • mahjong slot

    I don’t even know how I ended up here, but I thought this post was great. I don’t know who you are but definitely you’re going to a famous blogger if you aren’t already 😉 Cheers!

  • Tess Whitesel

    We stumbled over here coming from a different web address and thought I might check things out. I like what I see so i am just following you. Look forward to looking over your web page repeatedly.

  • crypto mining

    Merely wanna comment on few general things, The website pattern is perfect, the written content is very superb. “Taxation WITH representation ain’t so hot either.” by Gerald Barzan.

  • link cektoto212 resmi

    Greetings! I know this is kinda off topic however , I’d figured I’d ask. Would you be interested in trading links or maybe guest writing a blog post or vice-versa? My site discusses a lot of the same topics as yours and I believe we could greatly benefit from each other. If you’re interested feel free to shoot me an email. I look forward to hearing from you! Wonderful blog by the way!

  • casino sans wager

    Hi there, just became aware of your blog through Google, and found that it’s truly informative. I’m gonna watch out for brussels. I will appreciate if you continue this in future. Numerous people will be benefited from your writing. Cheers!

  • Dylan Hittner

    Hello, i believe that i noticed you visited my blog so i came to “return the choose”.I am attempting to in finding issues to improve my web site!I guess its adequate to make use of some of your ideas!!

  • kamusjudi

    When I initially commented I clicked the “Notify me when new comments are added” checkbox and now each time a comment is added I get three emails with the same comment. Is there any way you can remove me from that service? Cheers!

  • kokitoto togel

    It’s a pity you don’t have a donate button! I’d most certainly donate to this outstanding blog! I suppose for now i’ll settle for book-marking and adding your RSS feed to my Google account. I look forward to brand new updates and will share this site with my Facebook group. Talk soon!

  • agenolx bola

    hello there and thanks in your information – I have certainly picked up anything new from right here. I did however expertise several technical issues using this website, since I skilled to reload the website lots of times previous to I could get it to load properly. I have been puzzling over in case your web host is OK? No longer that I’m complaining, but sluggish loading cases times will sometimes have an effect on your placement in google and can damage your high-quality score if ads and ***********|advertising|advertising|advertising and *********** with Adwords. Anyway I’m adding this RSS to my email and can look out for much more of your respective interesting content. Make sure you update this again soon..

  • olxtoto

    I have not checked in here for some time since I thought it was getting boring, but the last several posts are great quality so I guess I¦ll add you back to my everyday bloglist. You deserve it my friend 🙂

  • how to play baccarat

    I?¦ve been exploring for a little for any high-quality articles or weblog posts in this kind of area . Exploring in Yahoo I at last stumbled upon this web site. Studying this info So i?¦m happy to show that I have a very good uncanny feeling I discovered exactly what I needed. I such a lot indisputably will make sure to do not fail to remember this website and provides it a glance on a continuing basis.

  • situs toto 176 login

    certainly like your web-site but you have to check the spelling on several of your posts. Several of them are rife with spelling issues and I find it very troublesome to tell the truth nevertheless I’ll surely come back again.

  • hokiku88

    It¦s really a great and helpful piece of info. I am happy that you simply shared this helpful information with us. Please stay us informed like this. Thanks for sharing.

  • hptoto bandar

    Hey! I know this is kinda off topic but I was wondering if you knew where I could get a captcha plugin for my comment form? I’m using the same blog platform as yours and I’m having problems finding one? Thanks a lot!

  • Colby Maulden

    A lot of what you assert is supprisingly precise and it makes me ponder why I had not looked at this in this light before. Your piece truly did turn the light on for me as far as this particular issue goes. But there is one position I am not too comfortable with and whilst I attempt to reconcile that with the core theme of your issue, permit me observe what the rest of your visitors have to say.Well done.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.